yall keep an eye and ear on the weather coming up later this week and weekend


National Weather Service Birmingham AL
214 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

There will be a low (10-30%) chance for a few strong to severe
storms Thursday with hail and damaging winds being the main risk
with potential best across the south-central portion of the
forecast area.

Friday through Friday night.

A potent high-amplitude deep mid-level trough will quickly move
east over the Desert Southwest early Friday morning while
shortwave ridging briefly builds into the local area from the
west. The potent trough will take on more of a negative tilt as it
approaches the Southern High Plains later in the day while the
mid-level shortwave ridging moves east of the area during the
afternoon hours. By nightfall, the sharply negative tilted trough
will be centered over Eastern Kansas while broad shortwave ridging
is positioned over the Southeast Atlantic Coast. Rapid
cyclogenesis will result in a quickly deepening surface low
centered across Southwest Nebraska Friday morning that will dart
northeast toward Western Wisconsin through the remainder of the
afternoon and evening hours. A stationary front will extend from
the surface low southeast across the Midwest, Ohio Valley and
Eastern Tennessee Valley Regions to our north and northeast while
a Pacific front advances east across the Plains through the
afternoon and evening hours.

Breezy conditions with increasing clouds from the west are
forecast through the daytime hours Friday. Low to medium (15-45%)
chances for showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the
evening northwest, expanding southeast with time past midnight
when a medium to high (50-90%) chance for showers and storms are
expected across the area with best potential northwest. Highs
Friday will range from the lower 70s far east to the lower 80s
south and west. Lows Saturday morning will range from the upper
50s north and east to the lower 60s southwest.

A low to medium (20-40%) risk for severe thunderstorms will exist
Friday evening past midnight Saturday morning that includes all
hazards, from damaging winds to a few tornadoes and large hail
with the greater potential generally across the western and
central counties. This time span will be more narrow due to the
rapidly departing surface low becoming positioned well to the
northwest of the area along with slowly decreasing low-level
instability through the night, though dynamics will remain
sufficient well into the early hours Saturday morning.

Saturday through Sunday morning.

A shortwave impulse will quickly move east over the Southern
Plains Saturday, resulting in the broad trough to amplify further
and approach the area from the west. While the parent upper and
surface lows become stacked near the Western Great Lakes, the warm
front advances further northeast into the Northern Ohio River
Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic Region while the Pacific Front
approaches the Lower Mississippi River Valley Region Saturday
morning. There continues to be indications of possible secondary
surface low development across Southern Louisiana with a potential
coastal/marine frontogenesis that could advance inland later in
the day and provide richer low-level moisture to an already warm
and unstable environment. The enhanced wind shear associated with
the surface low would only further contribute to strong dynamics
and provide an environment supportive of all modes of severe
weather across the area. The strong front will move through the
area by the pre-dawn hours Sunday morning with a reinforcing cold
front approaching the area from the northwest later in the
afternoon.

Unsettled conditions with ongoing showers and some storms may
persist into the early morning hours Saturday. Outflow boundaries
from previous convection are expected across the area and could
help act as low-level focal points for new convection as strong
warm air/positive moisture advection moves in from the south with
a potentially inland advancing coastal/marine boundary. Some
isentropic lift would be expected with such a feature and could
enhance shower/storm activity early in the day and this potential
could limit the northward extent of this richer low-level moisture
plume. Ultimately, smaller-scale processes not yet resolved will
contribute to the convective evolution through the rest of the
morning hours before the strong front nears from the west during
the afternoon hours. A forced line of thunderstorms with potential
more discrete development ahead of the line is possible and the
supercell tornado potential would be maximized with this activity
while QLCS tornadic activity is expected within the line of storms
due to high shear and expected sufficient buoyancy given no
widespread persistent cloud cover and precipitation occurring
through much of the morning hours. In addition to the tornado
risk, strong forcing aloft will support damaging wind risk that
will be maximized with the line of storms with gusty winds likely
exceeding wind advisory criteria even outside of convection
through the day Saturday. The presence of very cold air aloft will
result in steep lapse rates and will contribute to a large hail
threat across the area as well. By dawn on Sunday morning,
lingering showers with some thunderstorms will be moving through
the southeast third of the area where a low (15-35%) chance of
activity is forecast while drier air ushers into the state from
the west. Highs Saturday will range from the mid 70s north to
around 80 far south and southeast. Lows Saturday night will range
from the upper 40s far northwest to readings around 60 southeast.

Thanks. Keep us posted. When it 4-5 days out and talking about it. Could be bad be prepared. Crank the generator.