Hard to believe some folks picked up some government bonds today paying 5%
CNBC’s bond man said he had never seen anything like it. Went from 3.7% to 5% in an hour. Crazy

The country, most likely the world, is run by a small group of people I will never know. We are pons in there little games. I will live the best I can and provide for my family.

pawns... But yes we are.

I wonder what would happen if China stopped buying our bonds. I’m just not sure we’re in as strong of a position to negotiate as Trump thinks. I’d hate to see another 2008

I think we account for something like almost 40% of the world's economy. Plus we can grow all our own food, produce all our own energy, steel, cars, etc... If we choose to or need to.

No other country in the world has the resources, arable land, etc... to do that like we can. The world needs us more than we need them.

So as for now we have a pretty nice poker hand.

10 yr opened right around 4.2 yesterday, which coincidentally is pretty much where it was sitting Monday after China’s Friday dump. It never got above 4.51 yesterday in active trading and finished at 4.3. That same yield was over 5% in March of 2023 and was in the double digits back in the 80s. It’s settled right back to down and is set to open this morning, down slightly, at 4.29.

The 30-year yield rose 0.072 percentage points, and the 10-year yield climbed 0.151 points on Wednesday or just over 1/10th of 1%. No where near any type of historically high yield/pricing. Not even for the past 24 or 36 month period.

I guess CNBC’s bond man has never spent much time working in the bond markets. Maybe he should look at the one day movement in the bond markets back in 2022 since he’s never seen anything like it. Everyone needs to quit buying into the sensationalism and fear mongering propaganda causing all the volatility. Lol

[quote=abolt300]10 yr opened right around 4.2 yesterday, which coincidentally is pretty much where it was sitting Monday after China’s Friday dump. It never got above 4.51 yesterday in active trading and finished at 4.3. That same yield was over 5% in March of 2023 and was in the double digits back in the 80s. It’s settled right back to down and is set to open this morning, down slightly, at 4.29.

The 30-year yield rose 0.072 percentage points, and the 10-year yield climbed 0.151 points on Wednesday or just over 1/10th of 1%. No where near any type of historically high yield/pricing. Not even for a 24 month period.

I guess CNBC’s bond man has never spent much time working in the bond markets. Maybe he should look at the one day movement in the bond markets back in 2022 since he’s never seen anything like it. Everyone needs to quit buying into the sensationalism and fear mongering propaganda causing all the volatility. Lol[/quot

So why did Trump pivot yesterday?

Another sign: Long-dated bonds, used by hedge funds in the basis trades, saw yields rise. Thirty-year Treasury yields rose 12 bps to 4.835%. At one point, they clocked their biggest three-day jump since 1982


WSJ

Probably because the majority of the major industrialized nations, with the exception of China, have all agreed to come to the table and negotiate fairer trade agreements. Everyone knew that forcing the issue to bring them to the table would be painful. Once you get what you were looking for to start with, which continue enduring the unnecessary pain?

I said in a post the other day that all Trump would have to do to reverse the market slide was to retract the tariffs when he decided he was ready.

lol. He decided he was ready because Japan forced his hand.

2/3'rds of the debt is owned by the US public. China and Japan own less than 10%. I think we'll be ok.

Exactly

Way to show that you really dont know what your talking about, without formally admitting it........ Actually, only 24% of the total US debt is held by foreign countries. Japan is the largest US debt holding nation (a whopping 1.1 trillion in US Treasuries both long and short) but even if they sold every single penny that they are holding, if they were not snapped up by others in the market, the FED would just cover them. With 36 trillion in debt, what's another trillion wasted. The FED bought 4.5 million in treasuries during the 24 months of their quantative easing spree during COVID. I'm kinda like halb and thinking we'll probably be okay.

You seem to be very knowledgeable regarding bonds. So who was selling bonds yesterday to cause the sudden rise in rates and why were they selling? Typically bonds are a safe haven during times of market volatility, so who was dumping bonds?

I understand bonds and the bond market but I would not call myself very knowledgeable on bonds by any means. Japan and China were the two big dumpers. China's stock market actually shut down last Friday, as a result of the tariff impacts. It was obvious what Trump was doing so they fired the only real bullet they had the their gun to hurt the US and disrupt Trumps plan to run treasuries down. Japans market went in the tank, so they did the same thing earlier this week. Not sure on the actual volume, but my guess is that both pretty much shot their wads to stop Trump from being able to achieve what he was attempting to do by driving the 10 yr down. A strong US, with manufacturing (particularly automotive and tech) re-shoring back into the US is the worst possible thing that could happen to both China and Japan. US restructuring the 9.5 trillion in debt that is coming due in 2025, under favorable rate terms, makes the US much stronger and in better position to achieve this goal of bringing manufacturing back home and becoming significantly less reliant on foreign goods. China is in real financial trouble and has been for years and Japan will be if they are forced to start producing in the US to avoid the tariffs. They both shot the only bullets they had in their gun. Look at it like this. The 10 yr was trading at 4.36 on 3/27, dropped to 3.86 on 4/4, they started dumping and now it has reset to almost exactly where it was prior to all the tariff BS and it's at 4.37 this morning. If you look at the daily raw data, the trends are glaringly evident and it's pretty easy to figure what is going on. I just wish I would have known 30 minutes ahead of time yesterday, before Trump paused the tariffs. Guess you have to be in Washington politics to have access to that insider info.

Oh. Ok. So like I said,Japan forced his hand. But I showed I don’t know what I’m talking about….got it. Thanks for the dissertation

I'm going to explain this really SLOW so that you can understand. They started dumping and it never drove it above where it was the previous week, prior to the tariffs. Once it was done, it was done. No more bullets in that gun. So explain to the rest of us how, after the storm has already occurred and been weathered, it forced Trump to drop tariffs after the fact. China did the same thing but refused to negotiate so he kept right on raising their tariffs tit for tat. He's now got them sitting on their thumbs wondering how to get off that 145% tariff they are staring at, without losing face. Big article today about how XI has painted himself into a box and cannot figure out how to get out without his hardliners revolting. Japan was paused at 10%, along with everyone else that signed up as being willing and agreeable to negotiating new trade agreements. Honestly, if I was trump, I would've told Japan to sit and spin after they did that. Only issue there is that they make a ton of specialized tech and equipment along with robotics that the US will need for these new manufacturing plants. That's probably the only reason that he did not continue to punish Japan, like he is doing to China. Once you get what you want, and people are willing to come to the table, there is no sense in continuing to beat the crap out of them. Especially if you are about to start negotiating long term trade deals with them. Make sense now?

jm, the tariff's against China have not been dropped, but have actually been increased., and neither Japan or China forced anyone's hand by dumping bonds. The strategy was to get the other countries to come to the negotiating table and they have. A 90 day tariff suspension has been put in place until a mutual trade agreement is made on a per country basis. Trump knows exactly what he's doing and this was the goal all along.

The bottom line is that manufacturing jobs desperately need to come back to the U.S. and this is the only way it can happen.

I understand your point, but are we really going to build factories to make Chinese junk? Like Dollar General junk. But I 100% agree that we need to get a handle on China. My opinion is there were better ways. I hope I’m wrong

I love hearing alternative ideas. Now that we all understand each others position, what in your opinion are/were the other options to reign in the communist china regime? How would we go about doing that and what would it look like?