I think that is a large part of the problem as well. Matt, I asked earlier, but would you agree with that statement?

It doesn't take but just a couple of poor hatches to really take a toll on the turkey population. I was fortunate enough to hunt a MS River club between the levees for 6 years while I was in school at Ole Miss. Just during that short period I was able to see the cyclical nature of turkey populations in full effect as the result of hatch success. Those confined clubs are a microcosm of the general population in my opinion except they are at an even higher risk because of the extremely limited turkey habitat in the MS Delta. Matt if you all haven't done any studies of those clubs, I think it would be interesting for you all.

The first two years I hunted the place were unbelievable. You would hear about 10 birds a morning and there were turkeys everywhere. That second spring though the MS River flooded and remained flooded for an extended period. The hatch was very poor that spring. The next spring was still pretty decent numbers of birds, but we saw zero jakes all year. Hunting continued as normal that year, and several gobblers were killed. Then that spring the River flooded again for the second consecutive year, and the hatch was very poor again.

That next spring bird numbers were awful. You would only hear 1 or 2 birds in the mornings and no jakes again. The river flooded early that year and they called off the season on the club. It actually did recede a little earlier that year and there was some nesting success. The next year was terrible again with only one or two gobbling birds but there were some jakes there gobbling as well.

The next spring was much better with decent numbers of gobbling birds but obviously they were all 2 year olds. The river did not flood that spring so they had another great hatch and by the following year things were quickly getting back close to normal.

There's a great book about these MS River clubs called East of the Slash by Wade Wineman. It covers some of the population fluctuations and how quickly the birds are able to rebound. It's definitely worth a read. I personally think that what we are experiencing has more to do with poor hatches and awful weather this spring than a problem with our limit. It sounds like the northern 1/3 of the state may be a different scenario, but I believe that to be true for the rest of the state.