I already said this and everyone told me I was wrong. Bet they won't say the same to you

By lowering a limit from 5 birds to 3, approximately 10-12% of birds would be saved each year.

I already said this and everyone told me I was wrong. Bet they won't say the same to you

Thanks gobbler your the man! When will hens begin to become receptive to the gobblers?

Most of the time I have an opportunity to join this debate I choose not to, because it's the same players with the same moves.

Incidental kill of non target birds (hens) is greatest in areas with an earlier season due to winter flocking. Don't think you can debate that.

The SETWG was in unanimous agreement that hunter related mortality was the leading cause of adult gobbler mortality, and that shifting seasons to a later date increased production and turkey density.

Several SE states have already tried this and it works. Fewer days to hunt on the latter end of the season ensures hens are bred, receive less disturbance upon nest initiation, and less hunter mortality on the gobbler segment and incidental take of hens.

By lowering a limit from 5 birds to 3, approximately 10-12% of birds would be saved each year. That's pretty substantial to me. That comes from our annual hunter survey, and for several consecutive seasons, if we replaced the 5 bird limit with 3, that is the number that was consistent across the board that would have been saved from harvest.

For those of you saying that a limit reduction wouldn't equate to more turkeys, well that makes no sense. Are gobblers not turkeys? Yes they are. More gobblers=more turkeys.

Some areas (TN Valley for instance) can not perpetuate turkeys with a long season. The population is impacted in such a negative way it can not rebound, given all other environmental factors equal. Season length can definitely increase or decrease populations. That's fact.

Ignoring this is foolish. Not making a change is foolish.

There is currently a model we are using that I am not smart enough to understand nor explain. It takes all causes of known mortality, poult production, season length and bag limits, and through some magic and chicken bone voodoo the statistical model will shoot out a projection, over time, of the consequences of certain changes. Example, if poult production and mortality are (x) at the current season length of 45 days, the projected consequence of lowering the season to 30 days under those mortality and production parameters will result in (y). Shifting seasons or shortening/lengthening them has far more consequence than you might think. Enough so, that poult production and recruitment can be impacted positively or negatively depending on the change in season structure. Bag limit changes don't seem to have as large a consequence. Not only is this model scientifically valid, but it can be supported by the changes a few states have taken to reverse the declining trend. Whether you like it or not, there are thousands upon thousands more turkey hunters in AL than there was a decade ago. And even more than two decades ago. Ya'll are basing your opinions on research that was conducted 35-50 years ago, when NOBODY hunted turkeys. Human related mortality is a huge contributing factor to declining turkey populations. Ignoring this is foolish. Not making a change is foolish. You may be fine in your neck of the woods, but in areas with increased urbanization and more turkey hunters status quo is no longer going to cut it.

If it's 50/50 ratio on gobblers to hens, (which it's not but I've read that it is) ...10000 gobblers would increase the overall gobbler population by 5 percent... I think that's pretty good increase over 5 years... Just would keep getting better....

Yes along with better habitat, predator reduction etc.

I'm afraid y'all can't see the forest for the trees with this argument. Those additional gobblers spared by lowering the limit or shortening the season represent an non-significant increase to the population. Gobblers do nothing to increase populations other than breed hens. I've never hunted anywhere in the state where I felt that there were too few gobblers to successfully breed all the hens.

If you want to increase populations, protect hens, improve nesting habitat, and declare war on predators. Those are the controllable factors. The most significant factor of all is weather though. Weather is the largest determining factor of nesting success from year to year, and that is going to ebb and flow like all things in nature.

How long did it take for the gobbler to return, if he did, to his normal area, according to the data?

Matt, again thanks for posting. One post seemed mainly addressed to me; hope you don't mind me cutting and pasting what you said so I can address your points in a way that all know what I'm referring to.

>>>>PCP, more people kill a 5 bird limit than your estimate. I'll just leave it right there.<<<<

I didn't make up the 2% figure I used. It was given to me by a state employee who had access to the hunter survey. Maybe he didn't have all the info at the time. I know you aren't to blame, but at a time when the state is apparently planning to make drastic changes in our turkey hunting, it is really concerning to me that this info is deliberately being covered up by the state. This one decision made by somebody has caused me to lose a lot of the good will I had built up toward the department in over 50 years of hunting. Tax money financed this research; why on earth is it covered up? I guess that's a rhetorical question; I sure don't expect an answer from anyone.

>>>Turkey24/7 and PCP, since you like to support AU so much, and the words of wisdom that have come from their research for the last several decades.....
There is currently a model we are using that I am not smart enough to understand nor explain.<<<

And then you reference the kind of computer model that is used for the climate change hysteria. I'm not smart enough to understand it either, but I know the outputs of any computer program depend on the inputs, and the inputs are a human decision. And there are plenty of eggheads at Auburn like any university; that's where I first got to know the type.

>>>Shifting seasons or shortening/lengthening them has far more consequence than you might think. Enough so, that poult production and recruitment can be impacted positively or negatively depending on the change in season structure.<<<

I'm not going to dispute this, I just wonder how? Is the number of hens killed by hunters the cause? Is it hunters disturbing the nests and causing them to abandon them? If you still have plenty of gobblers in an area all the way thru the end of turkey season, then how can the gobblers have anything to do with poult recruitment? If they somehow do, why isn't there an effort by the state to educate the hunters on it? At least some of us will try to do the right thing if we know what it is. I need something more than just being told that a computer model predicts it if I'm going to change what I'm doing.

>>>Whether you like it or not, there are thousands upon thousands more turkey hunters in AL than there was a decade ago. And even more than two decades ago. <<<

Well, let's look at some facts and see if that really is true whether I like it or not:

2014-60,000 licensed turkey hunters; 42,000 killed.
2004 - 57,000 hunters; 53,000 killed.
1994 - 47,000 hunters; 40,000 killed.
1984 - 38,000 hunters, 37,000 killed.
1975 - 30,000 hunters; 20,000 killed.

I guess it is technically accurate to say there are thousands upon thousands more hunters now than a decade ago, but that's an unusual way to describe 3000. In the past 40 years the number of hunters has doubled, but so has the harvest. Look at the actual results and you will see that we have averaged very close to one bird per hunter for the past 40 years, and that's as far back as the survey goes. And since 1982, it has never been below .6 and never been above 1.1

http://www.outdooralabama.com/sites/default/files/20132014HunterHarvestSurvey.pdf

I just don't see the crisis here. I see a system that has worked extremely well, except in areas that apparently just won't support turkeys.

>>>Ya'll are basing your opinions on research that was conducted 35-50 years ago, when NOBODY hunted turkeys<<<

I think the info I posted refutes the idea that nobody hunted turkeys. Much of north AL didn't even have turkeys in the 70s and 80s. The fact that hunter numbers have increased since then could only be expected. The fact the harvest has risen with the hunter numbers sure looks to me like the system put in place long ago has worked extremely well, and far better than the "enlightened" systems of other states.

>>>Not making a change is foolish.<<<

Well, there we have it. Matt knows what is going on, so it is apparently already decided. I am obviously wasting my time by trying to promote the AL system that has worked so well for so long. I'm near the end of my turkey hunting career, so it won't have much effect on me. When you younger guys are my age and hoping you can draw a tag so you can turkey hunt the next season, I hope you can still remember the good ole days. If you doubt me, just check the regs in Wisconsin. They have nearly as many turkeys as we do, but see what you have to go thru to hunt one. That's the kind of model that many desire for us. I suspect we will eventually have it.

I think I have said too much. My apologies to all I have offended. I am passionate about turkey hunting, but I am also passionate about promoting the AL system as the best way to manage turkeys for the good of the flock and hunters alike. Perhaps the world has passed me by.

A good evening to all!

I already said this and everyone told me I was wrong. Bet they won't say the same to you