Euro just came in with a Cat 4 right around biloxi and mobile next wednesday, but it is kinda on an island right now. The gfs and canadian have nothing. Euro run is scary if true though.

Model data on a tropical system is a crapshoot, at best, this far in advance. Too many variables in the atmosphere. The timing and strength of the ridge to the north will be a big factor in where this thing ends up.

No doubt, but its worth taking a note that the euro has had this type of solution for 3-5 days now, and it is constantly getting stronger. Out of all the models, the Euro usually has a better verification rate than the GFS. It will be interesting to see if the models continue to spit out two totally different solutions. No need to sound any alarms, but all eyes def need to be on the weather. The US has not had a major hurricane hit land in 11 years, and it would be nice to keep it that way.

FIFY, I'm sure some people up in the NJ area would take exception to the original statement.

Sandy was definetley a destructive storm and it was the largest Atlantic hurricane on record, but it didn't make landfall as a major hurricane. It was a category 2 at landfall on the US. Cat 3 and higher is considered a major hurricane.

I remember sandy was a 65mph tropical storm at landfall. It was a biggun though. This one looks to be the same way for now. That's one of the reasons why it has taken it so long to get going. The Euro and Ukmet are the two most reliable models out there and they both are saying the same thing. If our GFS screws this one up again I'll never pay any more mind to it. It never gets it going at all. We will know more once the HH data is plugged into the model runs. Last year we had a similar situation setting up with Erika and Hispaniola killed her off. That very well could happen with this one too. Judging by the visible satellite imagery, there are two centers of circulation and the southernmost one is gaining more convection. One thing that most all the models are agreeing with as of now is the ridge of high pressure in the Carolinas will keep this storm from going up the east coast. If it enters the gulf as a weak storm, it will go further to the west, stronger it will head our way. Weak always goes west. I can go on and on about this storm and what I think about it but the bottom line is, we will not know anything concrete until it has reached the Bahamas at the very least.

Looks like I might have a messed up work schedule if this thing does come to the northern Gulf. I "might" squeeze a day or two home but then hafta come back to Venice, LA for work before the storm rolls in....

Ha!...I'm hoping to squeeze OUT of Houma before it rolls in!

Unfortunately my job requires me to come TOWARDS the storm...gotta secure 2 facilities and get 7 boats moved inland and then try to get everything back in place immediately after a storm so they can reopen the river and Southwest Pass for ship traffic.

Now the models are not looking good for us...

nope.. more and more have it shifting a wee bit south of florida and right in the gulf

Post updated ones if you don't mind. I think the aldeer weather team is more better than the NWS. I know that since you put Leroy in charge of monitoring the servers and all the IT gizmo's that it has freed up more of your time for weather forecasting.

Give it 24hrs maybe it will change. BUT ensemble is drawing the southern tip of FL and that usually ain't good for us.

Here we go... batten down the hatches boys

The GFS was still weak, but it brought the "wave" into the GOM, which isn't the best sign. This one is gonna make many nervous from Florida, all the way to Texas. So many possibilities, but the GOM waters are 1 or 2 degrees warmer than the average for this time of year. If a storm does make it into the gulf then it shouldn't have a hard time intensifying. The next 48-72 hours are critical if it can survive.

We sure don't need that to come here. Water is just starting to get out of the few houses it got in. We are still over 5 ft above flood stage. WE DONT NEED ANY RAIN.

This is the one that really bothers me.

That has really intensified

True. 2 models are putting it right up Mobile Bay (home) and 3 models put it right up into the Venice, LA area (work). Lose lose for me right now. Good thing is we are 4-5 days out and we all know the track will more than likely change multiple times during that timeframe.