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Re: 99L --- something to keep an eye on [Re: Skinny] #1824528
08/25/16 01:27 AM
08/25/16 01:27 AM
Joined: Feb 2016
Posts: 826
Chelsea, AL
S
Spottedbass Offline
6 point
Spottedbass  Offline
6 point
S
Joined: Feb 2016
Posts: 826
Chelsea, AL
Skinny, what is driving the uncertainty with the projections/why aren't the models starting to narrow down? I would assume the closer it is the more accurate, consistent the models would be.

Re: 99L --- something to keep an eye on [Re: Spottedbass] #1824543
08/25/16 01:41 AM
08/25/16 01:41 AM
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 13,215
Montgomery / Luverne
crenshawco Online content
Booner
crenshawco  Online Content
Booner
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 13,215
Montgomery / Luverne
Originally Posted By: Spottedbass
Skinny, what is driving the uncertainty with the projections/why aren't the models starting to narrow down? I would assume the closer it is the more accurate, consistent the models would be.


Because meteorologists don't know jack grin

Re: 99L --- something to keep an eye on [Re: Spottedbass] #1824550
08/25/16 01:44 AM
08/25/16 01:44 AM
Joined: Dec 2001
Posts: 14,135
AL
H
hunterbuck Offline
Booner
hunterbuck  Offline
Booner
H
Joined: Dec 2001
Posts: 14,135
AL
Originally Posted By: Spottedbass
Skinny, what is driving the uncertainty with the projections/why aren't the models starting to narrow down? I would assume the closer it is the more accurate, consistent the models would be.


Because this thing's still a week out.


"You think I care? Roll Damn Tide"

Have you tried Google?
Re: 99L --- something to keep an eye on [Re: Skinny] #1824608
08/25/16 02:35 AM
08/25/16 02:35 AM
Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 1,636
Parker243 Online content
8 point
Parker243  Online Content
8 point
Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 1,636
Models are having a tough time figuring out the strength of the heat ridge to our NE. If the ridge is stronger than that should allow for a more westward track into the gulf and rapid intensification. If weaker ridge then we have a weaker system that will slide further east and not be as much of a threat to us. Latest Modes have shifted back to the west.

Re: 99L --- something to keep an eye on [Re: Spottedbass] #1824709
08/25/16 03:57 AM
08/25/16 03:57 AM
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 4,273
Marshall County
PRB Offline
Aldeer Sponsor
PRB  Offline
Aldeer Sponsor
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 4,273
Marshall County
A big factor in the uncertainty is the fact that wind shear is hindering development. At the moment, it's nothing more than an open wave with no center of circulation. Basically, just a big rain maker.


-------------------
Re: 99L --- something to keep an eye on [Re: PRB] #1824797
08/25/16 05:03 AM
08/25/16 05:03 AM
Joined: Nov 2005
Posts: 8,633
Chelsea, AL
lefthorn Offline
14 point
lefthorn  Offline
14 point
Joined: Nov 2005
Posts: 8,633
Chelsea, AL

Originally Posted By: PRB
A big factor in the uncertainty is the fact that wind shear is hindering development. At the moment, it's nothing more than an open wave with no center of circulation. Basically, just a big rain maker.


Nailed it. If it ever forms a defined center of circulation, they will get a better grip on where it MAY head

Re: 99L --- something to keep an eye on [Re: Skinny] #1825170
08/25/16 09:57 AM
08/25/16 09:57 AM
Joined: Dec 2013
Posts: 11,416
Prattville
D
Dkhargroves Offline
Booner
Dkhargroves  Offline
Booner
D
Joined: Dec 2013
Posts: 11,416
Prattville
Any update


Originally Posted by Johntravis89
There is 2 different high fence. 1 small and one big! Mine was free range in the big pen and was not a breeder buck. Why does it have to be twisted around??
Re: 99L --- something to keep an eye on [Re: Dkhargroves] #1825182
08/25/16 10:13 AM
08/25/16 10:13 AM
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 4,273
Marshall County
PRB Offline
Aldeer Sponsor
PRB  Offline
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Posts: 4,273
Marshall County
Still only a disorganized wave with no center of circulation and no strengthening. Unless something drastically changes, it has too many things working against development for much more than a weak tropical storm IMO.


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Re: 99L --- something to keep an eye on [Re: Skinny] #1825213
08/25/16 11:01 AM
08/25/16 11:01 AM
Joined: Aug 2001
Posts: 72,042
Luverne, AL
Skinny Offline OP
GUVNER
Skinny  Offline OP
GUVNER
Joined: Aug 2001
Posts: 72,042
Luverne, AL
It looks like it is being torn apart by Haiti/D.R. Thats a good thing...we dont need no nasty storms.


"Never Trust Government" -- Smart people.
"The Great thing we should Fear and the Weird Thing we Trust is Elon Musk" -- Me
"You can be broke but you cant be poor." -- Ruthie-May Webster
Re: 99L --- something to keep an eye on [Re: Skinny] #1825232
08/25/16 11:24 AM
08/25/16 11:24 AM
Joined: Jan 2013
Posts: 2,982
North Alabama
Fullthrottle Online content
10 point
Fullthrottle  Online Content
10 point
Joined: Jan 2013
Posts: 2,982
North Alabama
Us north bama boys sure could use some rain tho

Re: 99L --- something to keep an eye on [Re: Skinny] #1825257
08/25/16 11:58 AM
08/25/16 11:58 AM
Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 8,377
Gulfcrest
bigt Offline
14 point
bigt  Offline
14 point
Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 8,377
Gulfcrest
Originally Posted By: Skinny
It looks like it is being torn apart by Haiti/D.R. Thats a good thing...we dont need no nasty storms.

I 100% agree with this statement !


Life is too short to be small !!

http://crshuntingclub.webs.com/
Re: 99L --- something to keep an eye on [Re: Fullthrottle] #1825259
08/25/16 12:00 PM
08/25/16 12:00 PM
Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 8,377
Gulfcrest
bigt Offline
14 point
bigt  Offline
14 point
Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 8,377
Gulfcrest
Originally Posted By: Fullthrottle
Us north bama boys sure could use some rain tho

And hopefully you will get some, but not from some hurricane that causes destruction for us coastal folks wink


Life is too short to be small !!

http://crshuntingclub.webs.com/
Re: 99L --- something to keep an eye on [Re: Skinny] #1825359
08/25/16 02:08 PM
08/25/16 02:08 PM
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 6,731
somewhere around 112.
S
slippinlipjr Offline
I make Calds fer a livin
slippinlipjr  Offline
I make Calds fer a livin
S
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 6,731
somewhere around 112.
Looks like a naked low level swirl on the visible image to me.....that's about to take in some smoke from Cuban cigars. DOA.


Ctrl+C, Ctrl+V, Ctrl+Z

thesharkguard.com



Re: 99L --- something to keep an eye on [Re: Skinny] #1825367
08/25/16 02:12 PM
08/25/16 02:12 PM
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 13,215
Montgomery / Luverne
crenshawco Online content
Booner
crenshawco  Online Content
Booner
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 13,215
Montgomery / Luverne
Poor ol meteorologists are like a guy who hasn't gotten laid in a few years. Things start looking good and they blow their wad before the clothes even come off

Re: 99L --- something to keep an eye on [Re: Skinny] #1825391
08/25/16 02:21 PM
08/25/16 02:21 PM
Joined: Jan 2011
Posts: 38,489
N. Bama
257wbymag Offline
Boo Boo Head
257wbymag  Offline
Boo Boo Head
Joined: Jan 2011
Posts: 38,489
N. Bama
Perfect way to describe them!


Quietly killing turkeys where youre not!!!
My tank full of give a fraks been runnin on empty
I'm the paterfamilias
Re: 99L --- something to keep an eye on [Re: crenshawco] #1825393
08/25/16 02:22 PM
08/25/16 02:22 PM
Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 6,713
Baldwin County
mark Offline
14 point
mark  Offline
14 point
Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 6,713
Baldwin County
Originally Posted By: crenshawco
Poor ol meteorologists are like a guy who hasn't gotten laid in a few years. Things start looking good and they blow their wad before the clothes even come off


Sounds legit.


Sig Sauer, to hell and back reliable.

Whatever suits you just tickles me plum to death.

Can I refill your eggnog for you? Get you something to eat? Drive you out to the middle of nowhere and leave you for dead?

Re: 99L --- something to keep an eye on [Re: Skinny] #1825662
08/25/16 11:23 PM
08/25/16 11:23 PM
Joined: Aug 2001
Posts: 72,042
Luverne, AL
Skinny Offline OP
GUVNER
Skinny  Offline OP
GUVNER
Joined: Aug 2001
Posts: 72,042
Luverne, AL
Now the NHC says its chances for doing anything big are seriously reduced.
But they are still saying to keep an eye on it.


"Never Trust Government" -- Smart people.
"The Great thing we should Fear and the Weird Thing we Trust is Elon Musk" -- Me
"You can be broke but you cant be poor." -- Ruthie-May Webster
Re: 99L --- something to keep an eye on [Re: Skinny] #1825668
08/26/16 12:01 AM
08/26/16 12:01 AM
Joined: Nov 2005
Posts: 8,633
Chelsea, AL
lefthorn Offline
14 point
lefthorn  Offline
14 point
Joined: Nov 2005
Posts: 8,633
Chelsea, AL
Don't know how much it will strengthen, but looking like it's gonna hit the gulf coast. Models seem to be tightening up a litle



Re: 99L --- something to keep an eye on [Re: Skinny] #1825677
08/26/16 12:24 AM
08/26/16 12:24 AM
Joined: Jan 2011
Posts: 38,489
N. Bama
257wbymag Offline
Boo Boo Head
257wbymag  Offline
Boo Boo Head
Joined: Jan 2011
Posts: 38,489
N. Bama
It crosses the gulf like that and who knows what it'll be at that point.


Quietly killing turkeys where youre not!!!
My tank full of give a fraks been runnin on empty
I'm the paterfamilias
Re: 99L --- something to keep an eye on [Re: Skinny] #1825717
08/26/16 01:25 AM
08/26/16 01:25 AM
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 20,017
PDL, Fl
T
timbercruiser Offline
Freak of Nature
timbercruiser  Offline
Freak of Nature
T
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 20,017
PDL, Fl
Looks like we are going to be getting some rain we don't need here in the Fl Panhandle.

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