Ok, new discussion up. Can any of you smarter weather peeps make sense of this for me?

DISCUSSION…Northward return of modest moisture continues in the
open warm sector of a deep cyclone — from parts of the TN Valley
region northward to the lower and middle Ohio Valley region. The
leading edge of towering cumulus fields is noted from far northwest
AL into western parts of middle TN and western KY, near a
pre-frontal confluence axis trailing south-southeast of deep low
pressure over eastern MO. Despite the modest moisture, with surface
dewpoints in the 50s to the lower 60s (highest south), moderately
steep midlevel lapse rates around 7.5 C/km will support 500-1500
J/kg of MLCAPE.

Weak capping and strengthening deep ascent ahead of an approaching
midlevel trough will allow convection to gradually increase in the
vicinity of the confluence axis. This activity will mature as it
moves off the confluence axis and into the destabilizing warm
sector — aided by an appreciable orthogonal component of deep flow
relative to the confluence axis. Strong deep shear and the
aforementioned midlevel lapse rates, encouraging enhanced
storm-scale upward accelerations, will support discrete and
semi-discrete cells capable of very large hail. Also, the
isallobaric response to the deepening surface low to the north will
maintain backed surface winds (pressure falls of 2-4 mb per 2 hours)
across the open warm sector, resulting in long/curved hodographs in
the low levels. Tornadoes are expected, and significant tornadoes
will be possible — especially as supercells mature within a
corridor from central KY to central/northern AL later this afternoon
into the evening. Damaging wind gusts are also expected.