I'm heading that way here shortly for the week. The problem isn't the weather but finding a hotel. I'm sure the majority of the panhandle folks are coming west instead of Dothan and Enterprise like they usually do for a storm. The Holiday Inn Express in Theodore is showing thirty dollars more a night than it was last week for the same room. I'd rather stay in Saraland but when you pay $93.00 dollars a night for a room then there's an additional $ 39.43 tacked on in taxes. They have a high city occupancy tax. The Flyin J in Satsuma will no longer let me sleep in the truckers lounge.

How can hotels charge more during a natural disaster evacuation and legally get away with it? That's BS.

Restaurants don't increase the price of their food by X-percent during a disaster. Grocery stores don't do it.

Capitalism and supply-demand is one thing, IMO, but gouging during a disaster is another.

Watching some fag on then weather channel pointing at the surf in PCB and he's pointing out there saying it's currently 6-9 ft. I was at a house on Rosemary Beach 5 miles west, about an hr ago. Looked to be about 3' to me. Just checked the PCB surf report as of 11:00 and yep, sure enough it's 2-3 ft. Are these people really that freaking dumb or is it all intentional hype? Same guy just said that winds in PCB were going to be 125mph tomorrow. Current weather channel hourly forecast saying wind will gradually increase throughout tomorrow afternoon to max winds PCB at 4:00 of 73 mph and dropping off after that. WTH??? I'd like to get accurate info at least every once in a while. Just sick of the sensationalism and hype. Just present the true facts and let people make their own decisions. Rant over.

Damn gas stations have jacked the price up. Sonoco came in a couple of years ago and bought a bunch of the I-10 stations and their price is always 20 cents plus more than anybody else.

I'm just sitting here at Orange Beach like Lt Dan...bring it on Michael...I paid up til Thursday. ..I'm getting my monies worth!

What time is this thing suppose to make landfall?

Looks like sometime Wednesday evening

http://www.spaghettimodels.com/WDT.htm

Good navigable shot.

I know the family that owns it. It’s very good, but brick pit was better in my opinion.

Very real possibility that it’s flirting with being a CAT 4 at landfall.

Not unless it slows down. That and it's going start encountering more shear as it moves north. It's in a great spot to strengthen where it's is right now but it's forward momentum is what's keeping it from building more right now.

I was just looking at that. Next official update may be very interesting.

Always AT NIGHT

Oh well. I was happy that my food plots were planted and growing plus I saw some deer live and on cameras. Now my peaceful place to get away from the concrete jungle will likely be blown away. Planned on bowhunting in a few weeks but season may be ruined. This is terrible. Hoping I get lucky. Jog east Michael. The joy of mobile home ownership. Never again..

It is intensifying and forward speed isn’t going to lessen intensification.

The mid level shear has had very little effect and what shear there is will lessen as it moves north. Most of the guidance shows the shear and low entropy air intrusion abating. It’s actually moving into a much more favorable environment, with very little to hinder intensification.



From recon, I’m betting it’s a major at next update.

I'm also thinking there will be a minor adjustment west, maybe about 30-40 miles or so.

Actually the forward speed will lessen it. The longer it sits and spins in one place in 87 degree water the more it will build. The quicker it gets on shore the better. It would intensify a lot more prior to landfall if it was only moving 3-5 mph like some have done.

We've got a weather station right on the Walton/Bay county line. If it comes in at PCB I'll be able to tell you exactly what the winds are and what they were from 20 miles away. I'm betting that the east end of 30A will get sustained of 70-75 and gusts to around 85. Calloway, which is where I've said it was going to go in since this thread started will probably get sustained of 85-95 and gusts to around 100 or maybe even 110. Real damage will be storm surge from Calloway east to Apalachicola, it's gonna be BAD down there.

I sure hope you're wrong on that shift Skinny. We've got a house right there on 393 that is almost dried in. I took pictures this morning for our builders risk carrier just in case.

For anyone that is interested in comparing what the forecasters are saying, with actual current on ground, raw, unfiltered data you can go to Ndbc.noaa.gov. The active buoys are in yellow. Click on the yellow bouy and It will give actual wave heights, periods, highest gusts and sustained winds.

This is the complete opposite of what actually happens. If it sits and spins, that water won’t stay 87° for long and you have a weakening system.

A hurricane cools the surface water temp due to the surface winds and by pulling cooler water to the surface. The storm ingest the cooler water which, in turn, weakens it. A slower moving system is exposed to the sea surface cooling for a longer period of time and hinders intensification. The faster speed reduces the exposure time to the cooled water, which means it’s ingesting warm water that’s needed for intensifying. The forward speed will also correlate to increased surface wind speeds in the northeastern quadrant.

It’s doing just what it needs to strengthen.