Looks like the turn has begun.

They report maximum flight level winds, and then adjust downward based on data from Stepped-Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) onboard the plane. The SFMR was designed to measure surface level wind from above. If you read the discussion portion of the 6 hour updates (not the intermediate updates, the full advisory at 10 and 4, am and pm) they always disclose flight level winds and what their basis is to estimate surface winds shown in the advisory.

The rub is that the maximum wind field is tiny around the eyewall. Nearly no one sees those sustained winds.

Just heard him say they measured at 10,000 feet

Unless something drastically changes with the path, you are fine in Ft. Morgan. I'm in Milton, FL 60-70 miles to the east closer than you all are there and I'm just expecting rain and some decent wind gusts, maybe up to 40 knots or so. While the final track does vary ultimately where it makes landfall, they have gotten amazingly good at these prediction models of where it's gonna go so would be very shocked if it were to make a turn west at this point. If it's going to vary from the tracks, it's going to just keep going north.

For all those with negative talk about weather men and strength of storms, have you all experienced hurricanes? I have and can tell you you don’t mess around with them. A cat 1 or Cat 2 usually aren’t too bad but above that, better be preparing

And I don’t care where they measure the wind. A tree in saturated ground will come down on a house with not too much wind

Not what I meant at all. My point was we are seeing more than a 50% variance between reported winds and what the actual on ground data says. There has to be an explanation. I'm betting that is the difference. It doesn't matter what the wind speed is. Sure 145 is a lot worse than 70 but any sustained wind over even 50mph for several hours is going to do a lot of damage. I was in south FL for business right after Andrew and there was nothing but concrete slabs and piles of rubble where hundreds of houses were standiningbweeks earlier. I mean nothing left but the concrete foundations. It was terrible destruction like you've never seen.

I wonder if the Sambar deer and Red Wolves on St. Vincent Island
will escape to the mainland...…..or drown????
That Island may not be there tomorrow.

The reported wind speeds are surface wind readings from dropsondes in the storm. They are not embellishing numbers for “hype”. They are actual readings.

We are staying here, about 24 miles north of Seagrove Beach. Might lose power later today, but it is still headed between PC and Appalachicola.

Probably gonna get a little rough. Be on your toez

Currently light rain with 10 mph winds. Partner is in Seaside. Currently raining and he's guessing 20-25 sustained with gusts to 40.

Sub 930 pressure and CAT 5 winds just above the surface per the latest recon. It’s going to do it’s best to make a run at a CAT 5 before landfall.

Wow!! That’s no bueno

At this point, you done waited too late for that decision.
But the good news, you're on the west side, so you're probably looking at 50/60 mph winds and rain.

And that storm was rated equal to this one at landfall by the same agencies.

I'm just across the line from Pensacola. So far just a drizzling rain, and an occasional gust.

And it looks like the storm finally is making the turn to the right.

Yes the traffic. I drove south on 65 yesterday to Montgomery and it was pretty bad headed north. When it came time to get back on 65 headed home I took another route. It was barely moving. I’ve evacuated several hurricanes and rode one out because I waited too late to evacuate one time. That mistake will never be made again. That was a rough 6 hours.

Gotcha, thanks.

The very worst thing you can do is get trapped in a vehicle when it hits. Now you want to listen? Where the hell have you been in the past? I hope you come thru this, but you really made some piss poor decisions. Do you think all the media coverage is a joke? SMDH
Didn't you notice the sane people left?

Sheesh Larry calm down.