Looks like a good chance for a nader outbreak this weekend.....

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0811 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2020

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

CORRECTED TO ADD LABEL TO DAY 8 GRAPHIC

...DISCUSSION...
A multi-day severe weather episode is expected across portions of
the Arklatex into the Deep South vicinity on D5/Fri and D6/Sat. The
ingredients for severe thunderstorms will begin to fall into place
Day 4/Thu as an upper ridge spreads eastward across the eastern U.S.
and a large-scale trough intensifies across the western states. At
the surface, a strong surface pressure gradient will develop from
the Midwest to the western Gulf Coast, allowing rich Gulf moisture
to begin streaming northward across east TX and the lower MS Valley
vicinity on Thursday.

The warm sector will expand through the day on Friday from eastern
OK/TX eastward across much of the TN Valley and Gulf Coast states.
Surface dewpoints are expected to be impressive for this time of
year, climbing into the mid 60s to low 70s as a deepening surface
low shifts eastward across OK/TX on Friday. This will occur as the
western trough ejects eastward into the southern Plains and an
intense southerly low level jet overspreads the region. Forecast
guidance also shows a weak EML emanating from the Mexican Plateau
spreading over parts of the region, providing a weak cap that should
limit warm sector convection initially. Confidence has increased
that a strong vertical shear parameter-space will overlay a
high-quality warm sector ahead of the ejecting trough and a
southeastward-advancing cold front Friday afternoon through Friday
night. As such, a 30% severe delineation has been included for parts
of the Arklatex within the broader 15% severe probability area.

On Day 6/Sat, severe thunderstorm potential is expected to continue
into portions of the TN Valley and the northern Gulf Coast vicinity.
Similar to Friday, intense shear parameters and adequate instability
will exist across the region as the upper trough becomes more
compact and lifts northeast across the mid/lower MS Valley to the OH
Valley. 15% severe probabilities will be maintained at this time as
questions remain with respect to how pristine the warm sector will
remain over MS/AL and vicinity, as well as timing/location of key
surface features. That being said, the overall pattern will support
severe thunderstorms into Saturday evening across much of the Deep
South vicinity.

Confidence in severe potential beyond Day 6/Sat is low, though
guidance suggests stormy conditions could return to parts of the
Southeast on Monday/Monday night.

Supposed to be tent camping with 20+ trailmen this weekend. Watching this very closely and probably gonna pull the plug.

The wather guessers don't have a damn clue what will happen 6 days from now.

Truth, last Thursday at our Trail Life meeting it was Sunny and 65/55 for the weekend. Now it is the end of times.

This is why I always get a kick out of the climate change people. If you can't reliably tell me what the weather will be tomorrow, how could you possibly tell me what the weather will be in a decade or century from now?

They successfully predicted the last outbreak about a week in advance

I find it humorous when people bitch and complain about how meteorologists can't predict the weather 100% right every time. You do realize what that the very definition of "predict" is. It is a guess of what will happen in the future. There are too many variables that can change at a given moment, and there is no possible way to "predict" what will happen at 100%. All they can do is provide people with the best possible information that they have at the time, regardless of how many days in advance. People don't bitch and moan when the guys on College Gameday all predict one team to win and all get it wrong. It's an educated guess. Take it for what it is. Use the information in the best way you see fit. I really hate it for the people who can't watch "American Idol" because their local news coverage cuts in while attempting to help folks during severe weather.

What did you think think the weather was going to be like Saturday? Before you checked any type of forecast. Just on your gut.

A full week. And they were remarkably accurate.

I don't think about the wather 6 days from now. I don't know what it's going to be and neither do they.

I just hope it's a day early, was planning on going hunting Saturday.

Well, if you did - just tell us what you thought it would be like. Some of us have to plan for the weekend. You know, just planning according and all.

I don't care about your weekends. Everyday is the weekend for me. 👍

Just what we need some more rain.

Yep, my unofficial little co-op rain gauge said 5.5" this past weekend. smh

January has been mild so far. I miss those polar vortex things.

Wait till the end of next week