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Re: 23k+ dead so far
[Re: bill]
#3080636
03/26/20 12:49 PM
03/26/20 12:49 PM
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Joined: Jan 2001
Posts: 12,424
Birmingham
wew3006
Booner
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Booner
Joined: Jan 2001
Posts: 12,424
Birmingham
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thats what 1% usually means CDC is estimating the mortality at around 1.5% in US so slightly more than 1 per 100 that catch this will die, 3 out of every 200 will die at that rate Your example describes a 1% chance of dying if you go about your daily life. That is far from true. Nothing is risk free. You have a chance of dying everyday driving to work. Probably higher than your overall chance of dying from China flu. People should take precautions and stay home if they can but stop over reacting. 1 person in 103 will die from a car wreck , in this country. I guess if a 1% mortality rate is a number that causes you to hole up so that you don't risk your life, or those around you, you shouldn't ever drive again. Thats over an 80 year lifespan
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Re: 23k+ dead so far
[Re: GKelly]
#3080661
03/26/20 01:16 PM
03/26/20 01:16 PM
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Joined: Nov 2015
Posts: 12,982
Tuscaloosa
Geno
Booner
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Booner
Joined: Nov 2015
Posts: 12,982
Tuscaloosa
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i dont know about yall but if I was told I could either stay home or go about my daily business but the catch is I have to stand in line with 100 people and 1 of us will be randomly selected to be killed i think id stay home I dont like those odds. the rate of death is lowered by more testing because it takes so long to show symptoms but all the while you are spreading the disease, your just finding more cases that have not come to a resolution yet. I think if you look at resolved cases/deaths vs active cases/deaths youll see the mortality rate increase 2-3x 1 person will die out of each 100 that catch it. Looks more like 1 out of 200 right now dying. More likely to die in an auto accident.
Whoever is happy will make others happy too. Anne Frank
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Re: 23k+ dead so far
[Re: wew3006]
#3080673
03/26/20 01:31 PM
03/26/20 01:31 PM
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Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 24,523
Clarksville, TN /Greenville, ...
bill
Freak of Nature
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Freak of Nature
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 24,523
Clarksville, TN /Greenville, ...
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thats what 1% usually means CDC is estimating the mortality at around 1.5% in US so slightly more than 1 per 100 that catch this will die, 3 out of every 200 will die at that rate Your example describes a 1% chance of dying if you go about your daily life. That is far from true. Nothing is risk free. You have a chance of dying everyday driving to work. Probably higher than your overall chance of dying from China flu. People should take precautions and stay home if they can but stop over reacting. 1 person in 103 will die from a car wreck , in this country. I guess if a 1% mortality rate is a number that causes you to hole up so that you don't risk your life, or those around you, you shouldn't ever drive again. Thats over an 80 year lifespan Yeah, and what percentage of our population will be killed by this virus? If we wind up with 100k dead (will never, ever come close to that) that's still just around .25 percentage of the population. your odds of being killed by this virus are ultra low. If everyone that uses the logic to stay quarantined because 1 death is too many would apply that same rationale to forcing diet and exercise changes it would make a much greater difference (so great it would dwarf the numbers saved by quarantine against the virus) in mortality rates. Should we force changes like those to stop the spread of diseases like cancer, diabetes, crohn's, immune disorders, etc? If saving lives is the priority, above all else, why not force changes that really make a difference instead of cowering to a virus that won't have a fraction of the impact? I'm not in favor of either one. I understand that people get emotional when they perceive immediate threat to their family, and themselves, but when we are willing to throw logic out the window , and give in to panic and fear, nothing good comes of it. We are risking everything that makes this country great based on what? Some made up numbers that haven't happened but might happen? Numbers put out by institutions that hate our country and freedom? We don't think that might be more dangerous than the virus, itself?
" I do view Jim Waltz as a really good Presidential candidate"
Bama_Earl
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Re: 23k+ dead so far
[Re: Phil_Army]
#3080827
03/26/20 03:29 PM
03/26/20 03:29 PM
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Joined: Dec 2014
Posts: 8,427
Boaz,AL
CarbonClimber1
14 point
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14 point
Joined: Dec 2014
Posts: 8,427
Boaz,AL
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This virus may not kill you...but desperate people and collapsing governments will.....that'll kill lotsa folks. This virus has kinda been business as usual for me...ditch diggin an all..im essential..apparently. I'll 10 to 1 take this virus over economic ruin. Im 26, an i work too hard to see what little life and liberty ive got be trampled upon by some stupid virus...im realistic...and above all respectful to my peers...stop this foolishness...an let people go back to work...and keep you eye on the coming days...this situation we are in right now dont pass the smell test...something else is brewing.
"I dont quit.. And ill fight alone if i have to"
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Re: 23k+ dead so far
[Re: CarbonClimber1]
#3080846
03/26/20 03:55 PM
03/26/20 03:55 PM
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Joined: Apr 2015
Posts: 3,287
Hartselle, AL
NWALJM
10 point
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10 point
Joined: Apr 2015
Posts: 3,287
Hartselle, AL
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This virus may not kill you...but desperate people and collapsing governments will.....that'll kill lotsa folks. This virus has kinda been business as usual for me...ditch diggin an all..im essential..apparently. I'll 10 to 1 take this virus over economic ruin. Im 26, an i work too hard to see what little life and liberty ive got be trampled upon by some stupid virus...im realistic...and above all respectful to my peers...stop this foolishness...an let people go back to work...and keep you eye on the coming days...this situation we are in right now dont pass the smell test...something else is brewing. You’re wise beyond your years. Something is definitely rotten about this whole thing.
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Re: 23k+ dead so far
[Re: Phil_Army]
#3080859
03/26/20 04:07 PM
03/26/20 04:07 PM
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Joined: Jan 2001
Posts: 12,424
Birmingham
wew3006
Booner
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Booner
Joined: Jan 2001
Posts: 12,424
Birmingham
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You will get to know your kids real good; Aunt B just announced schools closed and home school till end of year
Kay Ivey issues new emergency order and announces: Alabama public school students will be taught at home online beginning April 6 and for the rest of the year.
Last edited by wew3006; 03/26/20 04:07 PM.
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Re: 23k+ dead so far
[Re: RoadRN]
#3081006
03/26/20 05:50 PM
03/26/20 05:50 PM
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Joined: Jun 2013
Posts: 3,165
Columbia, SC
CeeHawk37
10 point
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10 point
Joined: Jun 2013
Posts: 3,165
Columbia, SC
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Using the chances of dying in a car wreck comparison:
- What are the chances of dying if your vehicle doesn't have air bags? Seatbelts? Traction control? I'd say your chances increase exponentially.
I realize the toll the preventative measures are taking on our economy. I understand the sacrifice that is being asked of people. However, I think the criticism of these measures is unwarranted at this early stage. We still don't really understand this virus well enough to control it's proliferation. We aren't absolutely certain that we know exactly how to treat it. But I think some of the countries greatest medical minds are advising us to do what may very well be best for our health long term.
I just wonder if the same crowd (on here and in society at large) would be screaming from the rooftops about how the medical community and the government failed them had preventative measures not been taken. If (when) someone close to you becomes infected and suffers a negative outcome, will you still feel the same about these preventative measures?
I’ll answer for myself and say no. No I would not blame anyone else if one of my elders caught this and passed away. Contrary to popular belief of many in my age group, I don’t think government or medical community should decide for me what I can and can’t do, at least not in this country.
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