Originally Posted by CNC
This article that was posted the other day says that a number of studies show that 10% of the hunters kill 90% of the birds……Is this not the exact opposite of what y’all are saying with their being a problem of too many hunters killing one??……If we think about this situation a little deeper that means that those 10% of hunters arent killing them all on opening day either…..It means that it likely takes them a little while to kill all of those birds……Correct??.......You know I bet you could look at the GC numbers and see exactly what rate of the birds were killed on each day for each county.....Well, someone can anyways.
"A number of studies show that 90 percent of the turkeys are being harvested each season by 10 percent of the hunters in each state."


I would guess that Alabama wasn't one of those studies. Here is simple GC numbers. 60,000 hunters killed 25,468 birds. Your proposition would mean that 6,000 hunters killed 22,948, 4 birds per hunter (and the other 54,000 killed 2,520 turkeys - .05 turkeys per hunter or a bird per 21 hunters) Pretty unrealistic, especially considering that turkey hunter survey indicate only 2.4% of hunters report killing 4. According to the Dept, 61% of hunters report killing 1 bird. That is 36,000 hunters and 36,000 birds (by their own numbers and yea, that is MORE than GC reports indicating how screwed up or harvest data reports are). Bottom line is there is NO WAY that anywhere close to 10% of the hunters are killing 90% of the birds. The best 10% may be killing half or less than total harvest but that is pure speculation on my part. Im not going to search for it but I believe Chamberlain states that 90% of the harvest occurs in the first 2 weeks. That would also make having 10% of the hunters kill 90% of the gobblers impossible.

Originally Posted by CNC
Does everyone agree that we are in a warming trend that is likely causing the turkeys to start breeding earlier and that change in the game is a factor at play to consider??


Hate to say it but you will never get "everyone" to agree on pretty much anything. One of the things I tend to track due to what I do for a living and my recreational interests is spring. My observation this year is we are running a little late. When we burn longleaf in the younger stages (less than 5 or so years), we are HIGHLY interested in when the candles start to swell and extend. Usually we have to stop burning them my the last week of February or first of March (I have data going back nearly 20 years on this). This occurs slightly AFTER the beginning of blooms of Plums and Bradford pears and before dogwoods. Nearly every year we hunt the last week of quail season (last week of Feb) when the first Chickasaw plums start blooming. This year, the plums and pears didn't start good till last week, nearly 2 weeks late. Last week I looked at a 2 year old longleaf stand to see if I could burn it and would have been able to if we hadn't gotten into another rain pattern for 2 weeks. This is also a week or 2 late. I have heard gobblers gobble and seen them strut in December. They start early some years and late others. I hunted good gobbling birds opening weekend in the snow in Alabama and 70 degrees.

Regarding your next squiggly line chart, While March is the wettest month, you continually discount the volatility of the fuel this time of year and the lack of volatility in summer/fall. We will be burning tomorrow and it rained all day here today. Won't be able to do that in August. Again I ask, have you ever carried a driptorch? June is a peak lightning month as is July. March - May is also a high lighting season. Lets discount those as well rolleyes

Last edited by gobbler; 03/16/22 07:27 PM.
I swear by my life and my love of it that I will never live for the sake of another man, nor ask another man to live for mine