I’ve added a line onto the graph for lightening strikes to try and help splain it better. Lightening season simply begins in early spring and the frequency of it ramps up more and more as we heat up. Remember all of this is giving us percentages or a “probability” of ignition…..If the probability of lightening is low then so is the probability of getting a fire started. The more the frequency increases then the more the probability goes up. Its also important to keep in mind that we're not talking about one single fire being lit but rather a rate or frequency at which multiple spots fires are being lit across the landscape as you move forward in time.

Also, like I stated before…..with the addition of the grazing herds to the natural system that we lack in these stands today as well as the addition of fall dry season burns….there would have not been nearly as much fine fuel load like you're burning in the pics to spark and carry fire as easily….. Therefore I believe that any spring fires that occurred most likley did so at the tail end of turkey nesting and they were simple low intensity burns that released a bunch of mice to temporarily overwhelm predators and give the poults a better chance to make it through their two week critical period before they can fly.