Knew this joker would have a late push west. Pressure dropping faster than predicted, wouldn't be surprised if pushing cat 4 at landfall. She's officially got her chit together now

check out the lighting at MacDill AFB

INSANE LIGHTING

People with Epilepsy should avoid watching that. Wow!

West of original track but still steering northeast. Looks like she may go through an eye wall replacement which would limit her if she doesn't have time to redevelop a good eye. We'll see.

Stadium effect

Wow

Upgraded to a 4 at landfall

per NHC will be a CAT 4 at landfall..

Robert’s Bayou?

32 FOOT waves being produced

Waves from Idalia

wind forecast

From NWS Tallahassee

Idalia Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 14
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL AL102023
1116 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

FLZ019-300430-
/O.CON.KTAE.HU.W.1010.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Madison-
1116 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Madison

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Cat 2 Hurricane force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 80-100 mph with gusts to 175 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: until Wednesday
afternoon
- Window for Hurricane force winds: Wednesday morning until
Wednesday afternoon

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind
greater than 110 mph
- The wind threat has increased from the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for extreme wind of equivalent CAT 3 hurricane
force or higher.
- PREPARE: Last minute efforts should solely focus on
protecting life. The area remains subject to catastrophic
wind damage.
- ACT: Now is the time to shelter from life-threatening wind.
Be ready to move to the safest place inside your shelter if
necessary.

Just looked at the latest projected wind speed models on Mike’s Weather Page. Been hearing all night on TWC and local channels strong cat 3 and maybe even a cat 4 now with rapid intensification happening. The big pressure drop occurred 3-4 hrs ago but the latest wind speed readings shows it has only increased by 5 mph in the past 6 hrs (from 105 at 6pm to 110 on the latest update)The model I just looked at shows 24 models/ensembles. 2 out of 24, show/predict it as being a cat4 and one is predicting it as being at cat3 with all the rest predicting it to be a med to high cat2. Where are they getting these higher wind speeds projections that they are touting?

that sounds like it maybe. I know we went west from near point marina several miles and up a bayou to the right. Boutvrain out of groceries lol. We were down to the turkey bologna last few days. I had a blast thought being 18 and bullet proof I was wanting to ride one out when it hit. Glad now we didn’t have to

they are getting their information from the National Hurricane Center

363
WTNT35 KNHC 300256
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Idalia Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

...IDALIA STILL STRENGTHENING...
...FORECAST TO BE AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY AT
LANDFALL...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 84.5W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

and this is the new OFFICAL intensity forecast.. as of 10pm central time

Hurricane Idalia Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

Satellite and NWS radar imagery show that Idalia is becoming
increasingly more organized. The eye on the Tampa WSR-88D is
becoming better defined and the cloud pattern on GOES 16 imagery
consists of a growing Central Dense Overcast with a strong
convective band over the eastern semicircle of the circulation.
Reconnaissance aircraft measurements show that the central pressure
is steadily falling and is now around 958 mb. Flight-level and
SFMR-observed winds along with Doppler velocity data from the
aircraft support an intensity of 95 kt for this advisory.

Idalia is now moving faster toward the north or slightly east of
north with a motion estimate of 010/16 kt. The hurricane is moving
between a mid-level trough over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and
ridge over the Bahamas and Greater Antilles. The system is expected
to turn north-northeastward within the next 12 hours, make landfall
along the northeastern Gulf coast, and then move northeastward to
eastward on the southern side of a mid-level trough moving off the
northeast U.S. coast. The 12-hour track forecast point for this
advisory has been nudged a bit westward, a little west of the model
consensus, but close to the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions. It
should be noted that some credible models, i.e. the HAFS-A and
HAFS-B predictions, are even a little father west.

After landfall, Idalia is expected to move near or along the coast
of Georgia and the Carolinas in 24-36 hours. Uncertainty in the
track forecast beyond 48 hours remains quite large, with some of
the global models turning Idalia southward, while some of the
regional hurricane models show the storm moving out to sea. Given
the uncertainties, the official track forecast shows a slow
southeastward motion in 4 to 5 days.

Based on the current strengthening trend and the favorable
thermodynamic and oceanic conditions, significant strengthening
seems likely up to landfall. The new official intensity forecast
calls for Idalia to reach category 4 strength at landfall. This is
fairly close to the HAFS And HWRF regional hurricane model
simulations. After the center moves back over the Atlantic,
significant restrengthening is not anticipated at this time due to
the expectation of strong vertical west-southwesterly vertical wind
shear.

Dangerous winds are likely to spread well inland near the path of
Idalia due to its relatively fast forward motion.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

...IDALIA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS EXPECTED IN
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION THIS MORNING WHEN IDALIA MOVES INLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 84.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...175 KM SW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES

Will our fearless leader postpone his next vacation?

Cat 4 now

Last night = It is going to hit Tallahassee >120mph winds (call and warn your kids at FSU, if they decide to leave they should head west)
~8hrs later = No hurricane force winds expected in Tallahassee

In Ruskin - blowing ~30 here with gusts to ~40. Light rain. Now is the worst of the surge for Tampa, luckily it is on low tide. Tide will start turning ~8-9am. Biggest tide of the month. I don't know how the tide coming up while the SE winds are starting to lay down will coincide with flooding.

Right into to Tallahassee. Thats going to be a mess. Its going to take a lot of time to get all the power back on there. That place has a tree for every foot of power line.