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Re: Hurricane Idalia
[Re: Dkhargroves]
#3968575
08/29/23 11:42 PM
08/29/23 11:42 PM
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Joined: Apr 2018
Posts: 1,611 North of 459 South of 20
bhammedic84
8 point
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8 point
Joined: Apr 2018
Posts: 1,611
North of 459 South of 20
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and this is the new OFFICAL intensity forecast.. as of 10pm central time
Hurricane Idalia Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023
Satellite and NWS radar imagery show that Idalia is becoming increasingly more organized. The eye on the Tampa WSR-88D is becoming better defined and the cloud pattern on GOES 16 imagery consists of a growing Central Dense Overcast with a strong convective band over the eastern semicircle of the circulation. Reconnaissance aircraft measurements show that the central pressure is steadily falling and is now around 958 mb. Flight-level and SFMR-observed winds along with Doppler velocity data from the aircraft support an intensity of 95 kt for this advisory.
Idalia is now moving faster toward the north or slightly east of north with a motion estimate of 010/16 kt. The hurricane is moving between a mid-level trough over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and ridge over the Bahamas and Greater Antilles. The system is expected to turn north-northeastward within the next 12 hours, make landfall along the northeastern Gulf coast, and then move northeastward to eastward on the southern side of a mid-level trough moving off the northeast U.S. coast. The 12-hour track forecast point for this advisory has been nudged a bit westward, a little west of the model consensus, but close to the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions. It should be noted that some credible models, i.e. the HAFS-A and HAFS-B predictions, are even a little father west.
After landfall, Idalia is expected to move near or along the coast of Georgia and the Carolinas in 24-36 hours. Uncertainty in the track forecast beyond 48 hours remains quite large, with some of the global models turning Idalia southward, while some of the regional hurricane models show the storm moving out to sea. Given the uncertainties, the official track forecast shows a slow southeastward motion in 4 to 5 days.
Based on the current strengthening trend and the favorable thermodynamic and oceanic conditions, significant strengthening seems likely up to landfall. The new official intensity forecast calls for Idalia to reach category 4 strength at landfall. This is fairly close to the HAFS And HWRF regional hurricane model simulations. After the center moves back over the Atlantic, significant restrengthening is not anticipated at this time due to the expectation of strong vertical west-southwesterly vertical wind shear.
Dangerous winds are likely to spread well inland near the path of Idalia due to its relatively fast forward motion.
Turkey’s tell you when they want to die not lawmakers.
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