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Re: Fun with numbers……. [Re: CNC] #4013611
11/09/23 09:51 PM
11/09/23 09:51 PM
Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 6,033
Mobile, AL
P
Pwyse Offline
12 point
Pwyse  Offline
12 point
P
Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 6,033
Mobile, AL
I think there are less killed in each county. People are saying they killed bucks when they really didn’t. They are just trying to throw your map off CNC.

Re: Fun with numbers……. [Re: CNC] #4013617
11/09/23 10:00 PM
11/09/23 10:00 PM
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,982
Molino, FL
auburn17 Offline
8 point
auburn17  Offline
8 point
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,982
Molino, FL
Originally Posted by CNC
Originally Posted by auburn17
Originally Posted by CNC
Originally Posted by auburn17
Have we not accepted that these numbers are junk, and only as good as the “honest” people using the game check app? There is no system or enforcement in place to keep people honest.

I check mine because I have no reason to attempt to kill more than 3 bucks in a season, and rarely kill more than 2. With that being said I know an older retired gentleman that hunts near me, who knows his hunting days are numbered due to diabetes. He shot 13 bucks last season, game check doesn’t reflect that.


Have those people done about the same thing for the last 4 years in reporting or not reporting??.....If so then we can compare the “trend” or the change in an individual county. You may only have 65% of the people reporting but if that same 65% are reporting year after year then you can compare whether those folks are killing more, less, or about the same. That’s a trend and gives you insight to what is happening with the overall population. The biggest variable is really in the percentage of people reporting…..you need it to stabilize to compare numbers over time.




You still aren’t taking into account the people who have never, and will never report a kill. It doesn’t matter if 65% are reporting if you have NO clue what the other 35% are killing.

But to satisfy your question, the guy I’m speaking of may not kill a buck at all this year. He goes in phases based on his health year to year.



It does matter though……Are those 65% able to keep killing the same amount they have in the past or is there total decreasing due to decreased opportunities?? That’s how this works.


That depends on how many the other 35% are killing…

I’m not trying to argue with you, but I don’t think you are looking at the big picture. Without knowing what the non-reporters are killing, it’s a moot point. If that other 35% are road hunting, poaching, etc.

For some reason, we see Wilcox county tags riding around in Conecuh county on dirt roads during the rut. Why anyone would leave Wilcox to come to Conecuh is beyond me, unless they know the lack of warden presence or have been black balled from Wilcox county.

Last edited by auburn17; 11/09/23 10:06 PM.
Re: Fun with numbers……. [Re: CNC] #4013619
11/09/23 10:04 PM
11/09/23 10:04 PM
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 1,717
Tuscaloosa
H
hawndog Offline
8 point
hawndog  Offline
8 point
H
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 1,717
Tuscaloosa
He many bucks are reported as does just to get a number to give to processor?

Re: Fun with numbers……. [Re: CNC] #4013668
11/10/23 06:33 AM
11/10/23 06:33 AM
Joined: Jan 2020
Posts: 1,837
Marshall County
Wapiti55 Offline
8 point
Wapiti55  Offline
8 point
Joined: Jan 2020
Posts: 1,837
Marshall County
Until a real system with real enforcement you can’t put much into the reported numbers. Many people who once reported have started saying “ Screw it , this is pointless” . Some processors don’t even require a number. With inflation and the cost of processing going up, many are processing at home now.

Re: Fun with numbers……. [Re: Goatkiller] #4013700
11/10/23 07:30 AM
11/10/23 07:30 AM
Joined: Aug 2016
Posts: 898
North AL
Rainbowstew Offline
6 point
Rainbowstew  Offline
6 point
Joined: Aug 2016
Posts: 898
North AL
Originally Posted by Goatkiller

That's a lot of dead Spikes and 4 pointers.

That's reality.


My thoughts as well!

Re: Fun with numbers……. [Re: CNC] #4013710
11/10/23 07:49 AM
11/10/23 07:49 AM
Joined: Oct 2013
Posts: 3,787
Alabaster, Al
B
Buck_TrackingAL Offline
10 point
Buck_TrackingAL  Offline
10 point
B
Joined: Oct 2013
Posts: 3,787
Alabaster, Al
KILL MORE DOES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Re: Fun with numbers……. [Re: CNC] #4013713
11/10/23 08:00 AM
11/10/23 08:00 AM
Joined: Jul 2021
Posts: 4,065
North Al.
P
Paint Rock 00 Offline
10 point
Paint Rock 00  Offline
10 point
P
Joined: Jul 2021
Posts: 4,065
North Al.
I’d say many are skinned at the barn. Cut up chilled and never reported. And don’t plan on reporting. I can count many to several last year.

Re: Fun with numbers……. [Re: auburn17] #4013786
11/10/23 10:11 AM
11/10/23 10:11 AM
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,072
Awbarn, AL
CNC Offline OP
Dances With Weeds
CNC  Offline OP
Dances With Weeds
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,072
Awbarn, AL
Originally Posted by auburn17




That depends on how many the other 35% are killing…

I’m not trying to argue with you, but I don’t think you are looking at the big picture. Without knowing what the non-reporters are killing, it’s a moot point. If that other 35% are road hunting, poaching, etc.

.


It's my understanding that you’re looking at whether the people that ARE reporting are able to kill the same amount of deer year after year…… OR….. are there opportunities decreasing??....So if say 65% of the hunters in Macon Co report killing roughly the same “X” amount of deer year after year after year……and then suddenly that 65% is only killing “Y” amount now……then we can assume something happened with the population or at least we can do some further investigating …..Game Check was never meant to try and find an exact number of deer and that’s what folks are missing about it…..Its only really meant to look at trends and “sustainable yield” over time……Is the number for each county going Up, Down, or staying the same……..

That being said……after watching if for a while and comparing the Game Check numbers to the hunter survey……I actually think that there’s probably too much variance in the number of hunters reporting to game check on an annual basis from year to year right now for the trends to really be reliable…..If you look at the hunter survey numbers over the last few years they accurately reflect the increase in kills you would expect to see after legalized baiting was passed…..while the game check numbers don’t really match up as well. I think game check compliance has probably been up and down. You probably have individual counties fluctuating between 55-75% due to the changes that have been made over the last five years with these confirmation numbers at the processor. You would think at some point it will stabilize but as of now I’d say the old survey is still better data.


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Re: Fun with numbers……. [Re: CNC] #4013800
11/10/23 10:59 AM
11/10/23 10:59 AM
Joined: Nov 2013
Posts: 683
Georgia
ALclearcut Offline
4 point
ALclearcut  Offline
4 point
Joined: Nov 2013
Posts: 683
Georgia
Cleburne that high surprises me. It is a bottom 5 county on game check numbers every year.

Re: Fun with numbers……. [Re: ALclearcut] #4013803
11/10/23 11:05 AM
11/10/23 11:05 AM
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,072
Awbarn, AL
CNC Offline OP
Dances With Weeds
CNC  Offline OP
Dances With Weeds
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Posts: 24,072
Awbarn, AL
Originally Posted by ALclearcut
Cleburne that high surprises me. It is a bottom 5 county on game check numbers every year.


Likely already getting some pre-rut action going on in that area plus they opened 2 weeks earlier than everyone else.......


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Re: Fun with numbers……. [Re: BayedUp] #4013824
11/10/23 12:18 PM
11/10/23 12:18 PM
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 11,469
A
abolt300 Offline
Booner
abolt300  Offline
Booner
A
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 11,469
Originally Posted by BayedUp
I can assure you that there’s been more than 27 in Sumter and 30 in Choctaw.


Those numbers are way off. I know one guy and his college age son that have already killed 3 bucks and 4 does in Choctaw and none of them have been Chuckie checked. I also know a guy who, with help from his kids, killed 3 bucks and 7 does last weekend in Bullock, none checked. Nothing wrong with that in my opinion, given how the state really does nothing meaningful, management wise, with the data gathered. So tell me, how many other people like these two, are there? Just the one guy I know in Choctaw has contributed to the buck kill total being off by 10%, almost 30 days into the season. If one guy can affect the numbers by 10%, what about the 100s of others that are doing the same thing. Garbage in, garbage out.

Re: Fun with numbers……. [Re: abolt300] #4013860
11/10/23 01:03 PM
11/10/23 01:03 PM
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,072
Awbarn, AL
CNC Offline OP
Dances With Weeds
CNC  Offline OP
Dances With Weeds
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,072
Awbarn, AL
Originally Posted by abolt300
Originally Posted by BayedUp
I can assure you that there’s been more than 27 in Sumter and 30 in Choctaw.


Those numbers are way off. I know one guy and his college age son that have already killed 3 bucks and 4 does in Choctaw and none of them have been Chuckie checked. I also know a guy who, with help from his kids, killed 3 bucks and 7 does last weekend in Bullock, none checked. Nothing wrong with that in my opinion, given how the state really does nothing meaningful, management wise, with the data gathered. So tell me, how many other people like these two, are there? Just the one guy I know in Choctaw has contributed to the buck kill total being off by 10%, almost 30 days into the season. If one guy can affect the numbers by 10%, what about the 100s of others that are doing the same thing. Garbage in, garbage out.


Sure that’s going on in every county…….but the percentage of folks who ARE reporting in each county is likely very similar……Meaning that it is very unlikely that you have situation where 80% of hunters are reporting in Bullock while only 10% report in Choctaw…..Its more likely that both counties are seeing a similar compliance rate of 65% give or take……So therefore the county to county numbers are pretty comparable. There's likely been three to four times as many bucks killed in Bullock so far as Choctaw....maybe more

Last edited by CNC; 11/10/23 01:06 PM.

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Re: Fun with numbers……. [Re: CNC] #4013956
11/10/23 04:33 PM
11/10/23 04:33 PM
Joined: Jul 2020
Posts: 8,777
Chelsea
L
Lockjaw Offline
14 point
Lockjaw  Offline
14 point
L
Joined: Jul 2020
Posts: 8,777
Chelsea
Game check is useless. You only need to use it if you take a deer to a processor. That's the enforcement aspect. I'm sure game wardens catch people each year, but the vast majority of people who don't report likely go un caught.

Be honest, how many, if they had ,3 bucks and saw a bruiser wouldn't shoot it and take a chance? I mean really? I'd enforce the rules in my club, but that only happens if I'm out here or the person is honest, or someone else sees it and mentions it.

Re: Fun with numbers……. [Re: CNC] #4022012
11/22/23 10:33 AM
11/22/23 10:33 AM
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,072
Awbarn, AL
CNC Offline OP
Dances With Weeds
CNC  Offline OP
Dances With Weeds
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Posts: 24,072
Awbarn, AL
Updated buck kills to this point for each county……..

[Linked Image]

Just for the heck of it I thought I’d run the numbers to see how far along each county is compared to last year’s totals…..Keep in mind that the counties who have a November rut are going to be a little farther along than the others but most of the rest will be comparable. Of course its still real early but I wonder if this is a little foreshadowing of whats to come in some counties…..

[Linked Image]

Last edited by CNC; 11/22/23 10:34 AM.

We dont rent pigs
Re: Fun with numbers……. [Re: CNC] #4031454
12/03/23 06:46 PM
12/03/23 06:46 PM
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,072
Awbarn, AL
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Dances With Weeds
CNC  Offline OP
Dances With Weeds
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Awbarn, AL
Updated map…….again this is just buck harvest so far this year compared to last year’s total…..Its becoming more and more apparent that some counties are really lagging behind. I suspect these are the first ones to see the corn crash…..Keep an eye on the ones in the 11-15% range right now…..

[Linked Image]


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Re: Fun with numbers……. [Re: CNC] #4031465
12/03/23 07:02 PM
12/03/23 07:02 PM
Joined: Feb 2016
Posts: 8,967
Right behind you
Mbrock Online content
Fancy
Mbrock  Online Content
Fancy
Joined: Feb 2016
Posts: 8,967
Right behind you
CNC, keep in mind many areas of the state have excellent acorn crops and dirt fields to hunt over too. Those will contribute to overall harvest success by the end of the year. Good acorn crops usually mean lower harvests. Food plot hunters won’t know what to do.

Re: Fun with numbers……. [Re: Mbrock] #4031486
12/03/23 07:22 PM
12/03/23 07:22 PM
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,072
Awbarn, AL
CNC Offline OP
Dances With Weeds
CNC  Offline OP
Dances With Weeds
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Awbarn, AL
Originally Posted by Mbrock
CNC, keep in mind many areas of the state have excellent acorn crops and dirt fields to hunt over too. Those will contribute to overall harvest success by the end of the year. Good acorn crops usually mean lower harvests. Food plot hunters won’t know what to do.


Maybe……….What I’m seeing though is that the counties lagging the farthest behind are the exact ones you would expect to be the most impacted by corn and cell cameras……the most fragmented with small properties and high hunter density……Marshall, Blount, St. Clair, Clay, Randolph, Geneva, etc……I just don’t think its acorns affecting those specific counties…..Maybe in Jackson it is but I suspect corn really increased hunter success over the last few years in those closed canopy mountains compared to what it used to be.

Last edited by CNC; 12/03/23 07:23 PM.

We dont rent pigs
Re: Fun with numbers……. [Re: CNC] #4031549
12/03/23 08:21 PM
12/03/23 08:21 PM
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,072
Awbarn, AL
CNC Offline OP
Dances With Weeds
CNC  Offline OP
Dances With Weeds
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,072
Awbarn, AL
Here’s another map for doe harvest up to this point……It’s a little more uniform…..the only real outliers are the counties where the rut is currently occurring which most likely has more hunters in the woods in those areas....There's a few suspect counties lagging behind in the southwest and northwest corners along with Clay and Randolph in the east central part of the state

[Linked Image]

Last edited by CNC; 12/03/23 08:24 PM.

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Re: Fun with numbers……. [Re: Mbrock] #4031558
12/03/23 08:31 PM
12/03/23 08:31 PM
Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 36,880
Boxes Cove
2Dogs Offline
Freak of Nature
2Dogs  Offline
Freak of Nature
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Posts: 36,880
Boxes Cove
Originally Posted by Mbrock
CNC, keep in mind many areas of the state have excellent acorn crops and dirt fields to hunt over too. Those will contribute to overall harvest success by the end of the year. Good acorn crops usually mean lower harvests. Food plot hunters won’t know what to do.


You are correct, Sir.



"Why do you ask"?

Always vote the slowest path to socialism.







Re: Fun with numbers……. [Re: CNC] #4031578
12/03/23 08:55 PM
12/03/23 08:55 PM
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,072
Awbarn, AL
CNC Offline OP
Dances With Weeds
CNC  Offline OP
Dances With Weeds
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Awbarn, AL
Actually y’alls stance is a little confusing……Matt for example, says that corn and cameras are really having an impact in some areas…..even started a thread about it….but yet disputes the numbers that point to such being true…..Which is it?? loco


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