In Colbert turkey populations are increasing on the eastern side. Folks were not hunting and killing turkeys in the eastern side 20 years ago like they are now.

There was a couple more borderline counties that could be thrown in there….but generally speaking the counties in green are the ones that appear to be on a slight increase…….the ones in the red on a slight decrease……and everyone else just fluctuating around the mean. This is looking at the last 4 ¾ years of data….Might as well call it 5 at this point…..Again, I say generally speaking......….From what folks are saying though it seems to fit

I have heard more birds than ever in walker and Winston county in my 4 years of hunting them. But they go silent after flying down that's for sure.

Keep in mind…..and I will readily admit……that this 5 years worth of data is really just enough to start seeing some trends and having things come into focus…..Another 5 years from now it’ll much easier to say more definitively…..I’m kinda just measuring the “slope” of the line really…..Some of those southeastern counties have had some pretty big fluctuations too so its kinda hard to call them without a few more years of data……Something tells me though that if they’re heavily impacted by brooding predators then their population growth is probably capped. If we wanted to grow that population we’d have to decrease the brooding predation effect which would decrease the “magnitude” of the wave or the variability .00% as we have it represented.

I probably should have circled Marion Co in the green as well.......It looks like you basically have a pocket of growth going on in that area.....On a bigger scale most everything that's red or green is grouping with other counties around it in bigger pockets.....St. Clair could also probably be added to that red pocket on the eastern side

Yeah but I’ve been hunting them for over 30 years. Thats my timeline. Others have a different timeline.
If there was only a way to compare 100 years worth

I mean yeah it would cool to look at and learn from but I think its really most important for us to understand what’s going on right now……Because at the end of the day your slope line for population is still either doing one of three things…..up, down, or straight. The variables that impact that arent really a big mystery like we make it out to be. The vast majority is being limited through predation….nesting or brooding…..The difference between now and 25 years ago…..50 years ago…..100 years ago…..is just that the variables have changed that effect rates of predation….whether that be directly or indirectly…..loss of habitat or increase of nest predators and poult predator populations.....decrease in insect populations, etc....it really all leads back to how it impacts predation

25 years ago there were significantly more turkeys in my area. That’s not just me saying that but anyone that hunted them back then and still to this day. This also includes southern TN just north of here. Lauderdale population in the line hasn’t lost near the birds we have but they’re down too compared to 25 years ago.

Heck I can ever some areas I’m mentioning just 10 years ago had more birds than now. To be honest it appears Weber turns the corner and is increasing slowly. I will say I’ve seen more poults the last 3 years than the proper 5 or so.

Once again this is talking with guys that have hinted these same areas that I have. In Colbert some guys I know are finally killing birds in places that didn’t have birds 15 years ago. Those areas are increasing rapidly.

Maybe predator base is not there yet especially if those predators are primarily reliant on turkeys/poults/eggs.

🤷‍♂️

There really arent any predators that are “reliant” on turkey eggs and poults…..Those two things only exist in short supply for short periods of time…..they don’t really prop up predator populations…..Predator populations rely on steady diets of other things the majority of the year.…Things like rodents …

So no rats and mice on the east end of Colbert?

Its probably more about the density……I’m sure they exist about most everywhere…..Land management though dictates the total amount produced

Imagine if we took the map below and added in all the finer layers of “SMZ’s” that coons are inhabiting down to the drainage ditches……and then we corn the hell out of all of it………Doing so it’s easy to see how a lot of areas could be “nesting limited”……



If I were to pick one particular area where I felt like nesting was least likely to be an issue……It would be the exact area defined in red on the bottom right corner the map. Its booming with the nesting cover

Shoot the hawks.

After hearing what an owl will do to a turkey i think they could be as much of a predator as a coon or possum .

Cool video!

I agree on your assessment of nesting cover in the Blackbelt area you circled. Lots of overgrown fields for nesting. But something equally as important is brood habitat once those eggs hatch. A lot of those fields are too thick for poults to bug in IMO. Need less turf grass dominated fields and more native species

Right now were 136 birds away from Game Checking the exact same number of birds this year as last year......What's the chances of that happening??

Down to 98.......Gotta be some kind of conspiracy

I know it’s a big task but someone needs to plot the amount of severe weather data between 4/10-5/10 per year, against the latest recruitment numbers out of the TN study. There’s going to be a 1 year lag in harvest, but recruitment should match year over year. (IE.unenventful weather 2021, great harvest 2022). It’s all about flattening’ the curve.

If you look at this critically, the only way to give “”insurance” against an unforeseen down weather year (uncontrollable), is to boost the population in every other year. …….Are we talking stock market or turkeys……. A simple reduction from 3 birds to 2 birds/ year is an 8% increase in total population. Assuming the current average of .94 total recruitment(from studies), reducing the bag limit from 3 to 2 is plus 2% as a whole rather than the projected minus 6%. Am I just blind, or is this not the quick band-aid on what’s happening? Does this not guarantee success? Even if I l/we are wrong, the population would be ahead by 33% from where we are currently.

Give me my 10 days back in March and reduce the bag limit by ONE you c@[€ suckers…….


SIDE NOTE: I do have a wildlife science degree, but not too good w/ statistics. Check me