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Re: Season Predictions [Re: hawndog] #4243906
12/10/24 07:13 PM
12/10/24 07:13 PM
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Tuscaloosa
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hawndog Offline
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Or just people turning reporting kills without actually killing anything.

Re: Season Predictions [Re: CNC] #4243913
12/10/24 07:23 PM
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It really hasnt been that many deer......They only report about 500 does per season so it only takes 20 deer or so to change the numbers by 5%.......There's a lot of folks out there that still bow hunt during gun season

Last edited by CNC; 12/10/24 07:25 PM.

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Re: Season Predictions [Re: CNC] #4244110
12/11/24 08:04 AM
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My areas are down, both in harvest and observation

Re: Season Predictions [Re: CNC] #4246927
12/16/24 10:47 AM
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Update 12/16

Bucks

[Linked Image]

Does

[Linked Image]


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Re: Season Predictions [Re: CNC] #4246937
12/16/24 11:19 AM
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Something that catches my eye are some of the southeastern counties like Montgomery, Coffee, Dale that are right on par with other counties in their doe harvest but falling further and further behind with buck harvest…..It kinda tells you that hunters are out there hunting and shooting stuff but just not shooting bucks……One thing I’ve thought about with all of this stuff is that you’re almost going to have to look at each county or groups of similar counties in the same area as their own entity when looking at the timeline for any impacts that baiting may or may not be causing versus looking at anything on a state level……Each area or county has its own set of variables that influences how things play out.

Last edited by CNC; 12/16/24 11:24 AM.

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Re: Season Predictions [Re: CNC] #4250871
Yesterday at 04:53 PM
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12/23 Update........Again, this is compared to the average of the last 4 years.....So for example when you look at Lawrence Co with 101% for doe harvest.....that means they are already having an above average year for shooting does.......I suspect several of those counties with eventually see 5 year highs in doe harvest before its over


Bucks

[Linked Image]

Does

[Linked Image]

Last edited by CNC; Yesterday at 04:53 PM.

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Re: Season Predictions [Re: CNC] #4250884
Yesterday at 05:34 PM
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That 45% must be in North Monroe County in the agricultural and river area. Last week when we were at the camp, the only shots I heard were the shots we fired. We just don’t hear any shooting in our area.

Last edited by marshmud991; Yesterday at 05:35 PM.

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Re: Season Predictions [Re: CNC] #4250894
Yesterday at 05:48 PM
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Probably hard to hear them from the kitchen........ smile

Last edited by CNC; Yesterday at 05:49 PM.

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Re: Season Predictions [Re: CNC] #4250926
Yesterday at 06:56 PM
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tuscaloosa
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Houston and Russell with almost 60% and every county around them in the 20s. Kinda crazy on that buck harvest

Re: Season Predictions [Re: kkfish] #4250938
Yesterday at 07:13 PM
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Originally Posted by kkfish
Houston and Russell with almost 60% and every county around them in the 20s. Kinda crazy on that buck harvest

That’s simply due to the earlier breeding dates along the eastern portions of those counties.

CNC, just a thought. I know your theory because you’ve posted it in this thread a couple times. I have a couple of theories myself. What if the deer populations are growing in the areas with higher percentage harvest, and therefore providing more opportunity? OR, what if it’s not an indicator of overall deer populations at all, and deer are easier to kill this year due to some environmental factor? Examples would be failed food plots, lack of acorns, late season warm weather that provided more late season browse than an average year? I’ve seen all of these as possible contributors to harvest rates being different this year.

Last edited by Mbrock; Yesterday at 07:23 PM.
Re: Season Predictions [Re: kkfish] #4250941
Yesterday at 07:15 PM
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Originally Posted by kkfish
Houston and Russell with almost 60% and every county around them in the 20s. Kinda crazy on that buck harvest


Limestone and Madison……Dekalb and Marshall….Winston and Marion…..Cleburne and Clay…..


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Re: Season Predictions [Re: Mbrock] #4250944
Yesterday at 07:20 PM
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Dale County, AL
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Originally Posted by Mbrock
Originally Posted by kkfish
Houston and Russell with almost 60% and every county around them in the 20s. Kinda crazy on that buck harvest

That’s simply due to the earlier breeding dates along the eastern portions of those counties.

CNC, just a thought. I know your theory because you’ve posted it in this thread a couple times. I have a couple of theories myself. What if the deer populations are growing in the areas with higher percentage harvest, and therefore providing more opportunity? OR, what if it’s not an indicator of overall deer populations at all, and deer are more viable and easier to kill this year due to some environmental factor? Examples would be failed food plots, lack of acorns, late season warm weather that provided more late season browse than an average year? I’ve seen all of these as possible contributors to harvest rates being different this year.

Yep. A lot of people planted early and their plots are bare dirt. I think we still had a decent acorn crop down this way, but others within a 50 mile radius didn't get near the rain that we did, at the right times.


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Re: Season Predictions [Re: Mbrock] #4250961
Yesterday at 07:41 PM
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Originally Posted by Mbrock
CNC, just a thought. I know your theory because you’ve posted it in this thread a couple times. I have a couple of theories myself. What if the deer populations are growing in the areas with higher percentage harvest, and therefore providing more opportunity?


Do you think that folks feeding corn is having any significant impact on reproduction rates and overall fawn survival?


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Re: Season Predictions [Re: CNC] #4250963
Yesterday at 07:44 PM
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I’m still giving your theory some thought and why I ask the question above but…..

I’m not really focused so much on just this season……The trend line is more important………When the 2 doe per day rule was passed it took a whole decade for change to have its full impact and for the harvest trend line on the graph to go up as we ramped up killing and then back down as opportunities became more limited and hunter attitude began to change…….I’m not sure how long this change is going to take to cycle through……It may take just as long if I’m correct in suspecting why hunters started shooting more does……I just really dont think we have growing herds all over the state though.....

Last edited by CNC; Yesterday at 07:45 PM.

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Re: Season Predictions [Re: CNC] #4250970
Yesterday at 07:51 PM
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Originally Posted by CNC
Originally Posted by Mbrock
CNC, just a thought. I know your theory because you’ve posted it in this thread a couple times. I have a couple of theories myself. What if the deer populations are growing in the areas with higher percentage harvest, and therefore providing more opportunity?


Do you think that folks feeding corn is having any significant impact on reproduction rates and overall fawn survival?

I believe corn is having a negative impact in some areas, as people who previously had no hope of killing a deer due to poor habitat or deer having no reason to be on their property, now do. It’s increased harvest rates in areas where you had larger land managers with high populations. Those deer previously not being shot are getting shot with regularity now because everybody has a corn pile in their little corner of property, with a cell camera, and additional days to shoot. I could see this being a very big problem in areas with broken or smaller land ownership patterns. It’s why we proposed a reduced doe season in the TN Valley when I was with DCNR.

Re: Season Predictions [Re: CNC] #4250975
Yesterday at 07:56 PM
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Originally Posted by CNC
I’m still giving your theory some thought and why I ask the question above but…..

I’m not really focused so much on just this season……The trend line is more important………When the 2 doe per day rule was passed it took a whole decade for change to have its full impact and for the harvest trend line on the graph to go up as we ramped up killing and then back down as opportunities became more limited and hunter attitude began to change…….I’m not sure how long this change is going to take to cycle through……It may take just as long if I’m correct in suspecting why hunters started shooting more does……I just really dont think we have growing herds all over the state though.....

I’ve definitely been to areas where deer herds are not growing. I’ve been to plenty they are too. It’s region, and even site specific. Long term, and I have no idea how long, I believe we will see negative impacts on localized herds from the combination of corn, cams and longer seasons. I don’t like it one bit. It’s become VERY difficult to grow mature deer in places. They’re actually not even present on a landscape scale in many areas. People will eventually respond to that one of two ways. They’ll lose interest entirely or start killing more deer after they throw their hands up and say to heck with trying to manage deer anyways.

Re: Season Predictions [Re: CNC] #4250977
Yesterday at 07:57 PM
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I’m asking about the impacts of corn on reproduction rates because about the only way I could see harvest going up due to growing herds is if a bunch of does suddenly started having twins that weren’t before……I’m just thinking out loud here but if corn did increase reproductive rates then the increase in harvest would be sustainable on the trend line and not see a “crash”……..


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Re: Season Predictions [Re: CNC] #4250980
Yesterday at 08:02 PM
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Originally Posted by CNC
I’m asking about the impacts of corn on reproduction rates because about the only way I could see harvest going up due to growing herds is if a bunch of does suddenly started having twins that weren’t before……I’m just thinking out loud here but if corn did increase reproductive rates then the increase in harvest would be sustainable on the trend line and not see a “crash”……..

Corn alone is not going to result in healthier deer and higher reproductive rates. Habitat improvements on a LARGE scale do that. Overall habitat condition in this state as a whole is horrific. It’s awful. Needs much improvement. Deer in a lot of places are simply surviving, not thriving. They actually can exist and reproduce in a lot of habitat types and quality, but they do their best with managed understories and lots of herbaceous growth.

Last edited by Mbrock; Yesterday at 08:05 PM.
Re: Season Predictions [Re: CNC] #4250981
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Btw......most of the percentages above as far as bucks are concerned are hinging completely around rut timing.


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Re: Season Predictions [Re: CNC] #4250984
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Originally Posted by CNC
Btw......most of the percentages above as far as bucks are concerned are hinging completely around rut timing.

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