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Re: Season Predictions
[Re: CNC]
#4243913
12/10/24 07:23 PM
12/10/24 07:23 PM
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Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,096
Awbarn, AL
CNC
OP
Dances With Weeds
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OP
Dances With Weeds
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,096
Awbarn, AL
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It really hasnt been that many deer......They only report about 500 does per season so it only takes 20 deer or so to change the numbers by 5%.......There's a lot of folks out there that still bow hunt during gun season
Last edited by CNC; 12/10/24 07:25 PM.
We dont rent pigs
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Re: Season Predictions
[Re: CNC]
#4246937
12/16/24 11:19 AM
12/16/24 11:19 AM
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Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,096
Awbarn, AL
CNC
OP
Dances With Weeds
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OP
Dances With Weeds
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,096
Awbarn, AL
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Something that catches my eye are some of the southeastern counties like Montgomery, Coffee, Dale that are right on par with other counties in their doe harvest but falling further and further behind with buck harvest…..It kinda tells you that hunters are out there hunting and shooting stuff but just not shooting bucks……One thing I’ve thought about with all of this stuff is that you’re almost going to have to look at each county or groups of similar counties in the same area as their own entity when looking at the timeline for any impacts that baiting may or may not be causing versus looking at anything on a state level……Each area or county has its own set of variables that influences how things play out.
Last edited by CNC; 12/16/24 11:24 AM.
We dont rent pigs
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Re: Season Predictions
[Re: CNC]
#4250884
12/23/24 05:34 PM
12/23/24 05:34 PM
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Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 9,646
USA
marshmud991
14 point
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14 point
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 9,646
USA
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That 45% must be in North Monroe County in the agricultural and river area. Last week when we were at the camp, the only shots I heard were the shots we fired. We just don’t hear any shooting in our area.
Last edited by marshmud991; 12/23/24 05:35 PM.
It's hard to kiss the lips at night that chews your a$$ all day long.
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Re: Season Predictions
[Re: CNC]
#4250894
12/23/24 05:48 PM
12/23/24 05:48 PM
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Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,096
Awbarn, AL
CNC
OP
Dances With Weeds
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OP
Dances With Weeds
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,096
Awbarn, AL
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Probably hard to hear them from the kitchen........ 
Last edited by CNC; 12/23/24 05:49 PM.
We dont rent pigs
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Re: Season Predictions
[Re: kkfish]
#4250938
12/23/24 07:13 PM
12/23/24 07:13 PM
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Joined: Feb 2016
Posts: 8,983
Right behind you
Mbrock
Fancy
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Fancy
Joined: Feb 2016
Posts: 8,983
Right behind you
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Houston and Russell with almost 60% and every county around them in the 20s. Kinda crazy on that buck harvest That’s simply due to the earlier breeding dates along the eastern portions of those counties. CNC, just a thought. I know your theory because you’ve posted it in this thread a couple times. I have a couple of theories myself. What if the deer populations are growing in the areas with higher percentage harvest, and therefore providing more opportunity? OR, what if it’s not an indicator of overall deer populations at all, and deer are easier to kill this year due to some environmental factor? Examples would be failed food plots, lack of acorns, late season warm weather that provided more late season browse than an average year? I’ve seen all of these as possible contributors to harvest rates being different this year.
Last edited by Mbrock; 12/23/24 07:23 PM.
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Re: Season Predictions
[Re: kkfish]
#4250941
12/23/24 07:15 PM
12/23/24 07:15 PM
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Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,096
Awbarn, AL
CNC
OP
Dances With Weeds
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OP
Dances With Weeds
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,096
Awbarn, AL
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Houston and Russell with almost 60% and every county around them in the 20s. Kinda crazy on that buck harvest Limestone and Madison……Dekalb and Marshall….Winston and Marion…..Cleburne and Clay…..
We dont rent pigs
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Re: Season Predictions
[Re: Mbrock]
#4250944
12/23/24 07:20 PM
12/23/24 07:20 PM
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Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 2,621
Dale County, AL
DGAMBLER
10 point
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10 point
Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 2,621
Dale County, AL
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Houston and Russell with almost 60% and every county around them in the 20s. Kinda crazy on that buck harvest That’s simply due to the earlier breeding dates along the eastern portions of those counties. CNC, just a thought. I know your theory because you’ve posted it in this thread a couple times. I have a couple of theories myself. What if the deer populations are growing in the areas with higher percentage harvest, and therefore providing more opportunity? OR, what if it’s not an indicator of overall deer populations at all, and deer are more viable and easier to kill this year due to some environmental factor? Examples would be failed food plots, lack of acorns, late season warm weather that provided more late season browse than an average year? I’ve seen all of these as possible contributors to harvest rates being different this year. Yep. A lot of people planted early and their plots are bare dirt. I think we still had a decent acorn crop down this way, but others within a 50 mile radius didn't get near the rain that we did, at the right times.
To GOD be All the glory!!!
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Re: Season Predictions
[Re: Mbrock]
#4250961
12/23/24 07:41 PM
12/23/24 07:41 PM
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Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,096
Awbarn, AL
CNC
OP
Dances With Weeds
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OP
Dances With Weeds
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,096
Awbarn, AL
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CNC, just a thought. I know your theory because you’ve posted it in this thread a couple times. I have a couple of theories myself. What if the deer populations are growing in the areas with higher percentage harvest, and therefore providing more opportunity? Do you think that folks feeding corn is having any significant impact on reproduction rates and overall fawn survival?
We dont rent pigs
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Re: Season Predictions
[Re: CNC]
#4250963
12/23/24 07:44 PM
12/23/24 07:44 PM
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Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,096
Awbarn, AL
CNC
OP
Dances With Weeds
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OP
Dances With Weeds
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,096
Awbarn, AL
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I’m still giving your theory some thought and why I ask the question above but…..
I’m not really focused so much on just this season……The trend line is more important………When the 2 doe per day rule was passed it took a whole decade for change to have its full impact and for the harvest trend line on the graph to go up as we ramped up killing and then back down as opportunities became more limited and hunter attitude began to change…….I’m not sure how long this change is going to take to cycle through……It may take just as long if I’m correct in suspecting why hunters started shooting more does……I just really dont think we have growing herds all over the state though.....
Last edited by CNC; 12/23/24 07:45 PM.
We dont rent pigs
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Re: Season Predictions
[Re: CNC]
#4250970
12/23/24 07:51 PM
12/23/24 07:51 PM
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Joined: Feb 2016
Posts: 8,983
Right behind you
Mbrock
Fancy
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Fancy
Joined: Feb 2016
Posts: 8,983
Right behind you
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CNC, just a thought. I know your theory because you’ve posted it in this thread a couple times. I have a couple of theories myself. What if the deer populations are growing in the areas with higher percentage harvest, and therefore providing more opportunity? Do you think that folks feeding corn is having any significant impact on reproduction rates and overall fawn survival? I believe corn is having a negative impact in some areas, as people who previously had no hope of killing a deer due to poor habitat or deer having no reason to be on their property, now do. It’s increased harvest rates in areas where you had larger land managers with high populations. Those deer previously not being shot are getting shot with regularity now because everybody has a corn pile in their little corner of property, with a cell camera, and additional days to shoot. I could see this being a very big problem in areas with broken or smaller land ownership patterns. It’s why we proposed a reduced doe season in the TN Valley when I was with DCNR.
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Re: Season Predictions
[Re: CNC]
#4250975
12/23/24 07:56 PM
12/23/24 07:56 PM
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Joined: Feb 2016
Posts: 8,983
Right behind you
Mbrock
Fancy
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Fancy
Joined: Feb 2016
Posts: 8,983
Right behind you
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I’m still giving your theory some thought and why I ask the question above but…..
I’m not really focused so much on just this season……The trend line is more important………When the 2 doe per day rule was passed it took a whole decade for change to have its full impact and for the harvest trend line on the graph to go up as we ramped up killing and then back down as opportunities became more limited and hunter attitude began to change…….I’m not sure how long this change is going to take to cycle through……It may take just as long if I’m correct in suspecting why hunters started shooting more does……I just really dont think we have growing herds all over the state though.....
I’ve definitely been to areas where deer herds are not growing. I’ve been to plenty they are too. It’s region, and even site specific. Long term, and I have no idea how long, I believe we will see negative impacts on localized herds from the combination of corn, cams and longer seasons. I don’t like it one bit. It’s become VERY difficult to grow mature deer in places. They’re actually not even present on a landscape scale in many areas. People will eventually respond to that one of two ways. They’ll lose interest entirely or start killing more deer after they throw their hands up and say to heck with trying to manage deer anyways.
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Re: Season Predictions
[Re: CNC]
#4250977
12/23/24 07:57 PM
12/23/24 07:57 PM
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Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,096
Awbarn, AL
CNC
OP
Dances With Weeds
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OP
Dances With Weeds
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,096
Awbarn, AL
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I’m asking about the impacts of corn on reproduction rates because about the only way I could see harvest going up due to growing herds is if a bunch of does suddenly started having twins that weren’t before……I’m just thinking out loud here but if corn did increase reproductive rates then the increase in harvest would be sustainable on the trend line and not see a “crash”……..
We dont rent pigs
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Re: Season Predictions
[Re: CNC]
#4250980
12/23/24 08:02 PM
12/23/24 08:02 PM
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Joined: Feb 2016
Posts: 8,983
Right behind you
Mbrock
Fancy
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Fancy
Joined: Feb 2016
Posts: 8,983
Right behind you
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I’m asking about the impacts of corn on reproduction rates because about the only way I could see harvest going up due to growing herds is if a bunch of does suddenly started having twins that weren’t before……I’m just thinking out loud here but if corn did increase reproductive rates then the increase in harvest would be sustainable on the trend line and not see a “crash”…….. Corn alone is not going to result in healthier deer and higher reproductive rates. Habitat improvements on a LARGE scale do that. Overall habitat condition in this state as a whole is horrific. It’s awful. Needs much improvement. Deer in a lot of places are simply surviving, not thriving. They actually can exist and reproduce in a lot of habitat types and quality, but they do their best with managed understories and lots of herbaceous growth.
Last edited by Mbrock; 12/23/24 08:05 PM.
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Re: Season Predictions
[Re: CNC]
#4250981
12/23/24 08:03 PM
12/23/24 08:03 PM
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Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,096
Awbarn, AL
CNC
OP
Dances With Weeds
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OP
Dances With Weeds
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,096
Awbarn, AL
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Btw......most of the percentages above as far as bucks are concerned are hinging completely around rut timing.
We dont rent pigs
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Re: Season Predictions
[Re: CNC]
#4250984
12/23/24 08:04 PM
12/23/24 08:04 PM
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Joined: Feb 2016
Posts: 8,983
Right behind you
Mbrock
Fancy
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Fancy
Joined: Feb 2016
Posts: 8,983
Right behind you
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Btw......most of the percentages above as far as bucks are concerned are hinging completely around rut timing. 👍🏼
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