1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
9
|
10
|
11
|
12
|
13
|
14
|
15
|
16
|
17
|
18
|
19
|
20
|
21
|
22
|
23
|
24
|
25
|
26
|
27
|
28
|
29
|
30
|
31
|
|
|
|
|
|
69 registered members (desertdog, RSF, BCLC, Mossy3006, hue, Mike59, alhawk, CarbonClimber1, headshot, riflenut, dwaugh, Big Game Hunter, Bandit635, Dan4good, 700ltr308, jawbone, TDog93, Woody1, BD, Morris, coonhunterrn, Hunting-231, dirtwrk, Turkeyneck78, CKyleC, KnightRyder, Bustinbeards, Gobble4me757, J Elam, Bad06Z, doublefistful, Crappie, turkey247, claybird, Mack1, CouchNapper, MR3391, crenshawco, biglmbass, klay, odocoileus, twaldrop4, Rockhound, Peanut Man, outdoorguy88, Turkey Petter, Savage33, BCD, Mbrock, hhsdc78, mauvilla, C3SEAST, M48scout, BobK, Ron A., Smitty4Bama, Birdman83, Remington270, mcninja, T Bone, Marengo hunter, farmerjay, 7 invisible),
784
guests, and 0
spiders. |
Key:
Admin,
Global Mod,
Mod
|
|
|
Re: Season Predictions
[Re: Mbrock]
#4251130
15 hours ago
15 hours ago
|
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,096 Awbarn, AL
CNC
OP
Dances With Weeds
|
OP
Dances With Weeds
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,096
Awbarn, AL
|
I believe corn is having a negative impact in some areas, as people who previously had no hope of killing a deer due to poor habitat or deer having no reason to be on their property, now do. It’s increased harvest rates in areas where you had larger land managers with high populations. Those deer previously not being shot are getting shot with regularity now because everybody has a corn pile in their little corner of property, with a cell camera, and additional days to shoot. I could see this being a very big problem in areas with broken or smaller land ownership patterns. It’s why we proposed a reduced doe season in the TN Valley when I was with DCNR. I’ve definitely been to areas where deer herds are not growing. I’ve been to plenty they are too. It’s region, and even site specific. Long term, and I have no idea how long, I believe we will see negative impacts on localized herds from the combination of corn, cams and longer seasons. I don’t like it one bit. It’s become VERY difficult to grow mature deer in places. They’re actually not even present on a landscape scale in many areas. People will eventually respond to that one of two ways. They’ll lose interest entirely or start killing more deer after they throw their hands up and say to heck with trying to manage deer anyways. Corn alone is not going to result in healthier deer and higher reproductive rates. Habitat improvements on a LARGE scale do that. Overall habitat condition in this state as a whole is horrific. It’s awful. Needs much improvement. Deer in a lot of places are simply surviving, not thriving. They actually can exist and reproduce in a lot of habitat types and quality, but they do their best with managed understories and lots of herbaceous growth. So what about all of this ^^^^^ brings you to the theory that herds are growing and providing more opportunities to hunters??
Last edited by CNC; 15 hours ago.
We dont rent pigs
|
|
|
Re: Season Predictions
[Re: CNC]
#4251192
13 hours ago
13 hours ago
|
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,096 Awbarn, AL
CNC
OP
Dances With Weeds
|
OP
Dances With Weeds
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,096
Awbarn, AL
|
What I’m asking is…….what’s the “metric” by which you’re basing your opinion on??.....What’s telling you there’s more deer than 5 years ago?...... Is there any areas where road mortality is increasing?......That would be a sign of herds growing…..It seems like I’m seeing less but without actual measurements its hard to just go off of perception…..There are some stretches of highway around here where the road used to get hit pretty hard…….Its just a few deer here and there now though……Again though, a real measurement would be a lot better than perception.
We dont rent pigs
|
|
|
Re: Season Predictions
[Re: CNC]
#4251209
13 hours ago
13 hours ago
|
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,096 Awbarn, AL
CNC
OP
Dances With Weeds
|
OP
Dances With Weeds
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,096
Awbarn, AL
|
What I’m basing my theory on is that the last time we saw harvest trend lines increase for several years and then decline due to a change in the “rules of the game”…..aka the doe slaughter…….it did not result in more deer at the end of that time period…..we had less……My theory is that if we see the same trend line occur due to people killing more deer because of corn……then the end result will be the same…..less deer……Killing more deer is killing more deer regardless of if it happens from corn or a 2 doe rule……..If we had more deer then the harvest trend line would grow upward and then remain there on a new line that just did little up/downs annually…..We are trending downward though and have been for some time……The recent spike in harvest is from corn increasing opportunities and not from population growth.
We dont rent pigs
|
|
|
Re: Season Predictions
[Re: CNC]
#4251246
12 hours ago
12 hours ago
|
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 7,766 Falkville
MTeague
14 point
|
14 point
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 7,766
Falkville
|
The recent spike in harvest is from corn increasing opportunities and not from population growth. What are you basing your theory on? If you didn't see the deer being killed in front of corn, it is nothing but speculation.
I had much rather be tried by twelve than carried to my grave by six!!!!
|
|
|
Re: Season Predictions
[Re: CNC]
#4251284
10 hours ago
10 hours ago
|
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,096 Awbarn, AL
CNC
OP
Dances With Weeds
|
OP
Dances With Weeds
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,096
Awbarn, AL
|
What would really be good to know to add to our equation is any correction factor that may be needed for gradual changes that may be occurring with game check compliance……If GC compliance is trending upward then that would have the potential to make harvest appear to trend upward……I kinda feel like GC compliance probably plateaued though and those who use it do and those who don’t….dont…….Still though, even if compliance is trending upward…… if the trend line goes up and then back down again we still know there’s a good chance that a population decline is occurring…..
We dont rent pigs
|
|
|
Re: Season Predictions
[Re: CNC]
#4251398
6 hours ago
6 hours ago
|
Joined: Jun 2020
Posts: 12,683 Earth
TDog93
Booner
|
Booner
Joined: Jun 2020
Posts: 12,683
Earth
|
In clark - my 256 has 9-10 5 yr plus mature coming on it. Several experts or experienced dudes hav confirm what i saying thru pics! That would be very strong on 1000 acres. I made one eho n 6 years here - the rest been mature. Best year i ever had w deer on place. Prob agv taking 1.5 buck a year here and taken prob 4 does in 6 years
Next year may be the worst - but it strong this year. Winds hav sucked incredibly so i bairly hunted best spots this year - but pressure being way down is positive. Winds good Thursday on for few days - but hot so hopes low. If cold would feel Incredibly good on shoot mature
Hunt the wind - leave it better than you found it - love your neighbor as you love your self We need prayer for our country now more than ever
|
|
|
Re: Season Predictions
[Re: Mbrock]
#4251426
5 hours ago
5 hours ago
|
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 21,040 colbert county
cartervj
Freak of Nature
|
Freak of Nature
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 21,040
colbert county
|
Houston and Russell with almost 60% and every county around them in the 20s. Kinda crazy on that buck harvest That’s simply due to the earlier breeding dates along the eastern portions of those counties. CNC, just a thought. I know your theory because you’ve posted it in this thread a couple times. I have a couple of theories myself. What if the deer populations are growing in the areas with higher percentage harvest, and therefore providing more opportunity? OR, what if it’s not an indicator of overall deer populations at all, and deer are easier to kill this year due to some environmental factor? Examples would be failed food plots, lack of acorns, late season warm weather that provided more late season browse than an average year? I’ve seen all of these as possible contributors to harvest rates being different this year. All the processors up here I know of keep cutting hunters off because of record number of deer they’re receiving. The latest post on FB says call them after Dec 30th
“Socialism only works in two places: Heaven where they don't need it and hell where they already have it.” ― Ronald Reagan
|
|
|
Re: Season Predictions
[Re: cartervj]
#4251429
4 hours ago
4 hours ago
|
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,096 Awbarn, AL
CNC
OP
Dances With Weeds
|
OP
Dances With Weeds
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,096
Awbarn, AL
|
All the processors up here I know of keep cutting hunters off because of record number of deer they’re receiving. The latest post on FB says call them after Dec 30th That’s exactly what you would expect to happen when the harvest trend line goes up……I’m sure many of the processors said the same thing back in the early 2000’s when the does started pouring in back then too……….
We dont rent pigs
|
|
|
Re: Season Predictions
[Re: desertdog]
#4251502
3 hours ago
3 hours ago
|
Joined: Feb 2016
Posts: 8,982 Right behind you
Mbrock
Fancy
|
Fancy
Joined: Feb 2016
Posts: 8,982
Right behind you
|
Matt what General Counties and what type of Properties are these Deer Sorghum Hollow Processing post on there FB come from? Some Hammers but it may not just be this Season it seems like every Year! Fayette, Lamar and Marion for the most part. They come from all types of properties including public land. And there’s a lot of deer that aren’t getting posted on their FB page. I know of 8 very good deer taken there that have not been posted.
|
|
|
Re: Season Predictions
[Re: CNC]
#4251516
2 hours ago
2 hours ago
|
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,096 Awbarn, AL
CNC
OP
Dances With Weeds
|
OP
Dances With Weeds
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,096
Awbarn, AL
|
Here’s the doe numbers for just a few counties for the last four years to show you the type of trends that are occurring in some areas…..I could keep listing them but doe harvest increases range anywhere from 15-50% across many counties……Covington Co is even up 59%.......Do we think this is because there are a bunch more deer in these areas?......I doubt it
Autauga……1196……1363……1357…….1592 Montgomery…..1421…..1486…..1706……2122 Lowndes……….1223…….1261…….1401……..1786 Henry………1329……….1473…….1463……..1905 Covington……1392……1634………1730……..2219
Like I’ve said before…..I think you’re going to have to break it down and put each county or group of like counties on their own time line …….Different variables will impact how things plays out…….When its all said and done though I think you’re probably gonna have like three groups…….. 1) Lightly impacted…..2) Moderately impacted……..3) Heavily impacted…….The question is what percentage of hunters will fall into each category…….I’m saying its probably gonna be something like 1/3……1/3…..1/3 kind of a split……
I still really think a lot of what will determine that will be a matter of how hunters keep reacting with shooting does moving forward …….. If bucks are already becoming in short supply in some areas then drawing down the doe populations is definitely not gonna help the matter…..When you shoot too many bucks and follow it up by shooting too many does ……then you’ve just shot the chit out of everything and what you have is less deer…….Some folks ^^^^ may want to think about pulling back the reigns on the doe shooting…..It isnt gonna fix the problem of too many bucks being killed
We dont rent pigs
|
|
|
Re: Season Predictions
[Re: CNC]
#4251557
56 minutes ago
56 minutes ago
|
Joined: Apr 2016
Posts: 1,813 Elmore County
treemydog
8 point
|
8 point
Joined: Apr 2016
Posts: 1,813
Elmore County
|
Autauga County has about 600 sq mi of terrestrial "non-water" area. Even with 1600 kills, that' pretty close to 2.66 does killed per sq mile. The Covington Co numbers are less than that per sq mi. Those don't seem like big numbers to me..??
Last edited by treemydog; 49 minutes ago.
You gonna pull them pistols, or whistle Dixie?
|
|
|
|