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Re: Season Predictions
[Re: Mbrock]
#4251130
Yesterday at 07:56 AM
Yesterday at 07:56 AM
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Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,097 Awbarn, AL
CNC
OP
Dances With Weeds
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OP
Dances With Weeds
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,097
Awbarn, AL
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I believe corn is having a negative impact in some areas, as people who previously had no hope of killing a deer due to poor habitat or deer having no reason to be on their property, now do. It’s increased harvest rates in areas where you had larger land managers with high populations. Those deer previously not being shot are getting shot with regularity now because everybody has a corn pile in their little corner of property, with a cell camera, and additional days to shoot. I could see this being a very big problem in areas with broken or smaller land ownership patterns. It’s why we proposed a reduced doe season in the TN Valley when I was with DCNR. I’ve definitely been to areas where deer herds are not growing. I’ve been to plenty they are too. It’s region, and even site specific. Long term, and I have no idea how long, I believe we will see negative impacts on localized herds from the combination of corn, cams and longer seasons. I don’t like it one bit. It’s become VERY difficult to grow mature deer in places. They’re actually not even present on a landscape scale in many areas. People will eventually respond to that one of two ways. They’ll lose interest entirely or start killing more deer after they throw their hands up and say to heck with trying to manage deer anyways. Corn alone is not going to result in healthier deer and higher reproductive rates. Habitat improvements on a LARGE scale do that. Overall habitat condition in this state as a whole is horrific. It’s awful. Needs much improvement. Deer in a lot of places are simply surviving, not thriving. They actually can exist and reproduce in a lot of habitat types and quality, but they do their best with managed understories and lots of herbaceous growth. So what about all of this ^^^^^ brings you to the theory that herds are growing and providing more opportunities to hunters??
Last edited by CNC; Yesterday at 07:56 AM.
We dont rent pigs
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Re: Season Predictions
[Re: CNC]
#4251192
Yesterday at 09:37 AM
Yesterday at 09:37 AM
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Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,097 Awbarn, AL
CNC
OP
Dances With Weeds
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OP
Dances With Weeds
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,097
Awbarn, AL
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What I’m asking is…….what’s the “metric” by which you’re basing your opinion on??.....What’s telling you there’s more deer than 5 years ago?...... Is there any areas where road mortality is increasing?......That would be a sign of herds growing…..It seems like I’m seeing less but without actual measurements its hard to just go off of perception…..There are some stretches of highway around here where the road used to get hit pretty hard…….Its just a few deer here and there now though……Again though, a real measurement would be a lot better than perception.
We dont rent pigs
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Re: Season Predictions
[Re: CNC]
#4251209
Yesterday at 10:09 AM
Yesterday at 10:09 AM
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Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,097 Awbarn, AL
CNC
OP
Dances With Weeds
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OP
Dances With Weeds
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,097
Awbarn, AL
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What I’m basing my theory on is that the last time we saw harvest trend lines increase for several years and then decline due to a change in the “rules of the game”…..aka the doe slaughter…….it did not result in more deer at the end of that time period…..we had less……My theory is that if we see the same trend line occur due to people killing more deer because of corn……then the end result will be the same…..less deer……Killing more deer is killing more deer regardless of if it happens from corn or a 2 doe rule……..If we had more deer then the harvest trend line would grow upward and then remain there on a new line that just did little up/downs annually…..We are trending downward though and have been for some time……The recent spike in harvest is from corn increasing opportunities and not from population growth.
We dont rent pigs
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Re: Season Predictions
[Re: CNC]
#4251246
Yesterday at 11:20 AM
Yesterday at 11:20 AM
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Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 7,766 Falkville
MTeague
14 point
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14 point
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 7,766
Falkville
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The recent spike in harvest is from corn increasing opportunities and not from population growth. What are you basing your theory on? If you didn't see the deer being killed in front of corn, it is nothing but speculation.
I had much rather be tried by twelve than carried to my grave by six!!!!
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Re: Season Predictions
[Re: CNC]
#4251284
Yesterday at 12:59 PM
Yesterday at 12:59 PM
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Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,097 Awbarn, AL
CNC
OP
Dances With Weeds
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OP
Dances With Weeds
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,097
Awbarn, AL
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What would really be good to know to add to our equation is any correction factor that may be needed for gradual changes that may be occurring with game check compliance……If GC compliance is trending upward then that would have the potential to make harvest appear to trend upward……I kinda feel like GC compliance probably plateaued though and those who use it do and those who don’t….dont…….Still though, even if compliance is trending upward…… if the trend line goes up and then back down again we still know there’s a good chance that a population decline is occurring…..
We dont rent pigs
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Re: Season Predictions
[Re: CNC]
#4251398
Yesterday at 05:15 PM
Yesterday at 05:15 PM
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Joined: Jun 2020
Posts: 12,684 Earth
TDog93
Booner
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Booner
Joined: Jun 2020
Posts: 12,684
Earth
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In clark - my 256 has 9-10 5 yr plus mature coming on it. Several experts or experienced dudes hav confirm what i saying thru pics! That would be very strong on 1000 acres. I made one eho n 6 years here - the rest been mature. Best year i ever had w deer on place. Prob agv taking 1.5 buck a year here and taken prob 4 does in 6 years
Next year may be the worst - but it strong this year. Winds hav sucked incredibly so i bairly hunted best spots this year - but pressure being way down is positive. Winds good Thursday on for few days - but hot so hopes low. If cold would feel Incredibly good on shoot mature
Hunt the wind - leave it better than you found it - love your neighbor as you love your self We need prayer for our country now more than ever
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Re: Season Predictions
[Re: Mbrock]
#4251426
Yesterday at 06:21 PM
Yesterday at 06:21 PM
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Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 21,042 colbert county
cartervj
Freak of Nature
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Freak of Nature
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 21,042
colbert county
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Houston and Russell with almost 60% and every county around them in the 20s. Kinda crazy on that buck harvest That’s simply due to the earlier breeding dates along the eastern portions of those counties. CNC, just a thought. I know your theory because you’ve posted it in this thread a couple times. I have a couple of theories myself. What if the deer populations are growing in the areas with higher percentage harvest, and therefore providing more opportunity? OR, what if it’s not an indicator of overall deer populations at all, and deer are easier to kill this year due to some environmental factor? Examples would be failed food plots, lack of acorns, late season warm weather that provided more late season browse than an average year? I’ve seen all of these as possible contributors to harvest rates being different this year. All the processors up here I know of keep cutting hunters off because of record number of deer they’re receiving. The latest post on FB says call them after Dec 30th
“Socialism only works in two places: Heaven where they don't need it and hell where they already have it.” ― Ronald Reagan
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Re: Season Predictions
[Re: cartervj]
#4251429
Yesterday at 06:38 PM
Yesterday at 06:38 PM
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Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,097 Awbarn, AL
CNC
OP
Dances With Weeds
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OP
Dances With Weeds
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,097
Awbarn, AL
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All the processors up here I know of keep cutting hunters off because of record number of deer they’re receiving. The latest post on FB says call them after Dec 30th That’s exactly what you would expect to happen when the harvest trend line goes up……I’m sure many of the processors said the same thing back in the early 2000’s when the does started pouring in back then too……….
We dont rent pigs
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Re: Season Predictions
[Re: desertdog]
#4251502
Yesterday at 08:29 PM
Yesterday at 08:29 PM
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Joined: Feb 2016
Posts: 8,984 Right behind you
Mbrock
Fancy
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Fancy
Joined: Feb 2016
Posts: 8,984
Right behind you
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Matt what General Counties and what type of Properties are these Deer Sorghum Hollow Processing post on there FB come from? Some Hammers but it may not just be this Season it seems like every Year! Fayette, Lamar and Marion for the most part. They come from all types of properties including public land. And there’s a lot of deer that aren’t getting posted on their FB page. I know of 8 very good deer taken there that have not been posted.
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Re: Season Predictions
[Re: CNC]
#4251516
Yesterday at 08:54 PM
Yesterday at 08:54 PM
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Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,097 Awbarn, AL
CNC
OP
Dances With Weeds
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OP
Dances With Weeds
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,097
Awbarn, AL
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Here’s the doe numbers for just a few counties for the last four years to show you the type of trends that are occurring in some areas…..I could keep listing them but doe harvest increases range anywhere from 15-50% across many counties……Covington Co is even up 59%.......Do we think this is because there are a bunch more deer in these areas?......I doubt it
Autauga……1196……1363……1357…….1592 Montgomery…..1421…..1486…..1706……2122 Lowndes……….1223…….1261…….1401……..1786 Henry………1329……….1473…….1463……..1905 Covington……1392……1634………1730……..2219
Like I’ve said before…..I think you’re going to have to break it down and put each county or group of like counties on their own time line …….Different variables will impact how things plays out…….When its all said and done though I think you’re probably gonna have like three groups…….. 1) Lightly impacted…..2) Moderately impacted……..3) Heavily impacted…….The question is what percentage of hunters will fall into each category…….I’m saying its probably gonna be something like 1/3……1/3…..1/3 kind of a split……
I still really think a lot of what will determine that will be a matter of how hunters keep reacting with shooting does moving forward …….. If bucks are already becoming in short supply in some areas then drawing down the doe populations is definitely not gonna help the matter…..When you shoot too many bucks and follow it up by shooting too many does ……then you’ve just shot the chit out of everything and what you have is less deer…….Some folks ^^^^ may want to think about pulling back the reigns on the doe shooting…..It isnt gonna fix the problem of too many bucks being killed
We dont rent pigs
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Re: Season Predictions
[Re: CNC]
#4251557
Yesterday at 10:34 PM
Yesterday at 10:34 PM
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Joined: Apr 2016
Posts: 1,814 Elmore County
treemydog
8 point
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8 point
Joined: Apr 2016
Posts: 1,814
Elmore County
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Autauga County has about 600 sq mi of terrestrial "non-water" area. Even with 1600 kills, that' pretty close to 2.66 does killed per sq mile. The Covington Co numbers are less than that per sq mi. Those don't seem like big numbers to me..??
Last edited by treemydog; Yesterday at 10:41 PM.
You gonna pull them pistols, or whistle Dixie?
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Re: Season Predictions
[Re: treemydog]
#4251696
1 hour ago
1 hour ago
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Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,097 Awbarn, AL
CNC
OP
Dances With Weeds
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OP
Dances With Weeds
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,097
Awbarn, AL
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Autauga County has about 600 sq mi of terrestrial "non-water" area. Even with 1600 kills, that' pretty close to 2.66 does killed per sq mile. The Covington Co numbers are less than that per sq mi. Those don't seem like big numbers to me..?? Do you think they've just been shooting way under what they could have been up until this point?......Covington Co must be crawling with deer like fleas on a dog's back then......I'm sure doubling doe harvest wont be a problem.
Last edited by CNC; 1 hour ago.
We dont rent pigs
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