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Re: Season Predictions [Re: CNC] #4279646
02/03/25 11:30 AM
02/03/25 11:30 AM
Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 5,111
Mobile,AL/ Baldwin, Al
gatorbait154 Offline
12 point
gatorbait154  Offline
12 point
Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 5,111
Mobile,AL/ Baldwin, Al
With the looming hot weather for the last week it’s going to be even tougher now to catch up..

Re: Season Predictions [Re: Mbrock] #4279649
02/03/25 11:31 AM
02/03/25 11:31 AM
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,607
Awbarn, AL
CNC Offline OP
Dances With Weeds
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Awbarn, AL
Originally Posted by Mbrock
And populations are seemingly up in a large area of north and central AL. I’m not saying that because of the graph. The graph does support it in theory but we’ve got a dang lot of deer in places up here.

If you look at the GC trends over a statewide level you wouldn’t be able to tease out the regional differences and see there was an obvious issue.


Yep, you definitely have to look at each micro-area separately to see it......I think a lot of that increase in north Alabama is occurring in Zone C & D where they have less doe days...I'd probably "tease it" out separate for sure in those areas

Last edited by CNC; 02/03/25 11:34 AM.

We dont rent pigs
Re: Season Predictions [Re: CNC] #4279651
02/03/25 11:32 AM
02/03/25 11:32 AM
Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 12,494
Kennedy, al
G
globe Offline
Booner
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Kennedy, al
I have several I hope make it to season end.


Everything woke turns to shucks
Re: Season Predictions [Re: Mbrock] #4279654
02/03/25 11:35 AM
02/03/25 11:35 AM
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abolt300 Offline
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Originally Posted by Mbrock
There’s absolutely no way those southern counties make up a 12-28% deficit in one week.

Especially with the weather forecast that we are looking at from now til the end.

Re: Season Predictions [Re: CNC] #4279668
02/03/25 11:43 AM
02/03/25 11:43 AM
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,607
Awbarn, AL
CNC Offline OP
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Awbarn, AL
The change in the doe harvest map is really what’s indicating potential population level change……If doe harvest goes way up in an area then there’s really two options…..Its either 1) there’s more does to be shot because the population is growing….or 2) the population is the same and you just killed more out…which likely leads to less deer next year……

That being said……I doubt all of that extra doe killing in the upper right side outside of zone C&D is being done because of option 1…….I would be looking for the same thing to happen next year that’s happening now in places like Macon, Bullock, Montgomery, etc……..in the years following heavy doe killing….

Last edited by CNC; 02/03/25 11:44 AM.

We dont rent pigs
Re: Season Predictions [Re: CNC] #4279697
02/03/25 12:39 PM
02/03/25 12:39 PM
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abolt300 Offline
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Or, it could be that Alabama has over shot the buck population for the last 50 yrs and continues to do so, so that now there are not as many small to decent rack bucks prevalent in the population to be able to harvest. After 5 years of legalized baiting and whacking those young, stupid, easy to kill 1-3 yr olds by the truckload, with their nose in a pile of golden acorns, there simply are not as many left around to shoot and more people are now having to take does for their deer meat, instead of bucks.

Last edited by abolt300; 02/03/25 12:41 PM.
Re: Season Predictions [Re: CNC] #4279703
02/03/25 12:57 PM
02/03/25 12:57 PM
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,607
Awbarn, AL
CNC Offline OP
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Awbarn, AL
Most of it is coming from folks trying to balance out the overshooting of bucks with more doe killing to fix their problems…….You have people seeing lots of does and not so many bucks and they automatically think the solution is to shoot about 90 of them and things will get better


We dont rent pigs
Re: Season Predictions [Re: CNC] #4279712
02/03/25 01:08 PM
02/03/25 01:08 PM
Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 2,719
Dale County, AL
DGAMBLER Offline
10 point
DGAMBLER  Offline
10 point
Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 2,719
Dale County, AL
I haven't pulled the trigger one time this year and most of my neighbors have shot very few times.


To GOD be All the glory!!!
Re: Season Predictions [Re: CNC] #4284616
Yesterday at 05:51 PM
Yesterday at 05:51 PM
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 10,722
Past Ol’ man Finley’s plac...
Southwood7 Offline
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Past Ol’ man Finley’s plac...

Originally Posted by CNC
I’m predicting that this is gonna be a down year overall for most hunters around the state……Buck harvest will be down 15-20% or more in many counties........


Only 4 of the 67 Alabama counties had a buck harvest that was down 15% or greater according to your map.



The Spirit of God has made me; the breath of the Almighty gives me life.
Job 33:4
Re: Season Predictions [Re: Southwood7] #4284634
Yesterday at 06:17 PM
Yesterday at 06:17 PM
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 1,818
Tuscaloosa
H
hawndog Offline
8 point
hawndog  Offline
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Tuscaloosa
Originally Posted by Southwood7

Originally Posted by CNC
I’m predicting that this is gonna be a down year overall for most hunters around the state……Buck harvest will be down 15-20% or more in many counties........


Only 4 of the 67 Alabama counties had a buck harvest that was down 15% or greater according to your map.

Glad someone finally said it. After All the gloom and doom prophecies, the data shows the opposite. But the narrative is the same.

Re: Season Predictions [Re: CNC] #4284635
Yesterday at 06:17 PM
Yesterday at 06:17 PM
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,607
Awbarn, AL
CNC Offline OP
Dances With Weeds
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Awbarn, AL
Again......those maps are a comparison to the average….. The level I was referring to us falling from was last year’s peak on the recent trend line…….Most of south Alabama is down 10-20% from last year’s trend line peak.....some a little more……Bullock is down 25%.....I think many counties in the north eastern quadrant of Alabama will likely follow suit next season as I suspect they’re hitting that trend line peak this season…….just like was being pointed out about Jackson Co in the other thread……Just is what it is…..What goes up must come down if there isnt the deer herd there to support the increased killing……..

Last edited by CNC; Yesterday at 06:31 PM.

We dont rent pigs
Re: Season Predictions [Re: CNC] #4284652
Yesterday at 07:06 PM
Yesterday at 07:06 PM
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 10,722
Past Ol’ man Finley’s plac...
Southwood7 Offline
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Originally Posted by CNC
Again......those maps are a comparison to the average….. The level I was referring to us falling from was last year’s peak on the recent trend line…….Most of south Alabama is down 10-20% from last year’s trend line peak.....some a little more……Bullock is down 25%.....I think many counties in the north eastern quadrant of Alabama will likely follow suit next season as I suspect they’re hitting that trend line peak this season…….just like was being pointed out about Jackson Co in the other thread……Just is what it is…..What goes up must come down if there isnt the deer herd there to support the increased killing……..


Can you post the map from last year?



The Spirit of God has made me; the breath of the Almighty gives me life.
Job 33:4
Re: Season Predictions [Re: Southwood7] #4284668
Yesterday at 07:30 PM
Yesterday at 07:30 PM
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,607
Awbarn, AL
CNC Offline OP
Dances With Weeds
CNC  Offline OP
Dances With Weeds
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Awbarn, AL
Originally Posted by Southwood7
Can you post the map from last year?


I can make a map showing the change from last year to this year……About the most relevant information to look at is the 5 year trend data for a specific county of groups of counties……That gives you the best overall picture of what has been occurring in recent years and what is likely to occur next year and the year after….Like Dekalb here for example…..Just like Jackson beside it you see it trending upwards

Dekalb

Does……988……..942…….1206……1081……1304
Bucks….1378…….1336……1569…..1402……1791

This ^^^^ is the very thing I was basing my prediction off of for the southern counties that have trended upward…..If you see the doe harvest trend increasing and the population isnt growing with it……then it’s pretty safe bet that the harvest for both bucks and does is about to come down because you’re in essence thinning the deer out with that increased killing…..Predicting exactly which year any given county is going to “peak and crash” is the trickier part….They arent all on the same exact time line for how things are playing out....Many of the same general trends are occurring over time though


Last edited by CNC; Yesterday at 07:32 PM.

We dont rent pigs
Re: Season Predictions [Re: CNC] #4284698
Yesterday at 08:17 PM
Yesterday at 08:17 PM
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,607
Awbarn, AL
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Dances With Weeds
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Awbarn, AL
Here’s a theory……Lets say we take one of these counties like Montgomery now for example where doe harvest numbers have trended upwards from 1400 to 2200 does killed and populations have trended downwards because of it……

In order for populations to get back to where we want them then it would seem that we need to bring down the doe harvest…….Does it matter now who “doesn’t shoot does” in Montgomery Co to make up the 800 doe difference?......Couldnt we just hypothetically call up enough big landowners and clubs and have them NOT shoot any doe quotas?? Seems like this would be a pretty easy thing to do with a DMAP system……Does every property really have to be managed site specifically for does or could it be managed for the county by one big collective group shooting or better yet NOT shooting females depending on what was needed??

Last edited by CNC; Yesterday at 08:20 PM.

We dont rent pigs
Re: Season Predictions [Re: CNC] #4284712
Yesterday at 08:34 PM
Yesterday at 08:34 PM
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,607
Awbarn, AL
CNC Offline OP
Dances With Weeds
CNC  Offline OP
Dances With Weeds
Joined: Jun 2012
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Awbarn, AL
Here's a good thread to refer back to when asking the above ^^^^^ question???

http://www.aldeer.com/forum/ubbthre...in=292414&Number=4223904#Post4223904


We dont rent pigs
Re: Season Predictions [Re: CNC] #4284764
Yesterday at 09:29 PM
Yesterday at 09:29 PM
Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 37,449
Boxes Cove
2Dogs Offline
Freak of Nature
2Dogs  Offline
Freak of Nature
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Boxes Cove
Here's a one year trend in Jackson County , I'll bet the farm it's the all time record for road kills . They're everywhere , I've never seen so many. I've heard several others say the same.

popcorn



"Why do you ask"?

Always vote the slowest path to socialism.







Re: Season Predictions [Re: CNC] #4284805
Yesterday at 10:23 PM
Yesterday at 10:23 PM
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 24,607
Awbarn, AL
CNC Offline OP
Dances With Weeds
CNC  Offline OP
Dances With Weeds
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Awbarn, AL
Acorn crop failures seems to have a much more dramatic impact in areas like Jackson county that are dominated by lots of closed canopied hardwoods as compared to other areas…..I guess the deer are forced to move more and move farther and therefore more get killed……You don’t see the same kind of big swings up and down in annual harvest in other areas dominated by pine plantations and such…….

Last edited by CNC; Yesterday at 10:24 PM.

We dont rent pigs
Re: Season Predictions [Re: CNC] #4284806
Yesterday at 10:33 PM
Yesterday at 10:33 PM
Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 37,449
Boxes Cove
2Dogs Offline
Freak of Nature
2Dogs  Offline
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Boxes Cove
Originally Posted by CNC
Acorn crop failures seems to have a much more dramatic impact in areas like Jackson county that are dominated by lots of closed canopied hardwoods as compared to other areas…..I guess the deer are forced to move more and move farther and therefore more get killed……You don’t see the same kind of big swings up and down in annual harvest in other areas dominated by pine plantations and such…….


Jackson Co ain't all closed canopy , I'd suspect there's more hardwood saw timber logging and hardwood clear cutting going on in Ol' Hi-Jackson than any other county . The County is a giant checkerboard. Oh, we also have a lot of row crops in the river valley and out on the Plateaus of Cumberland and Sand Mts. Something that is only a memory down in the LA Black Belt.



"Why do you ask"?

Always vote the slowest path to socialism.







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