We have a county that’s been consistently killing 3000 does for the last 5 years and populations have remained stable…….How big would the total population of does need to be in order to take out that many each year and maintain the same population level?.... Would 10,000 does be about right??? Assume coyotes are accounting for 40-50% fawn mortality........

These are all guesstimates:

So you are killing adult Doe deer:
3000 does hunters
300 cars
700 other causes (age, sickness, yotes, etc)
You need to replace ~4000 does per year

Births:
80% of Does have 1.5 fawns/year (yearlings & adults)
50% of fawns are female
50% of fawns are killed by yotes

= 4000/.8/.5/.5/1.5

= 10,000

Maybe 2:1 doe/buck = 15,000 deer (includes spikes & button bucks)

Lee County is 616 sq miles so ~25 deer/ sq miles

Does that make sense?

Yeah that’s pretty close to what I was thinking as well…… So if we use Lee county then as the example they game checked 1165 does last year……We know game check isnt getting all of them so even if we use a correction factor and add another 40% then that’s still only 1700 does being killed……which is roughly half of our example numbers……..I’m just trying to do the figuring on the whole shebang from that and it would seem like there’s no way that there’s nearly as many deer in the state as they have estimated or either our figuring is wrong……We average game checking about 1450 does per county......

I was thinking that maybe instead of being 10,000 does that there’s actually 20,000 but if that were the case then I would think you would have major growth occurring until populations were maxed out kind of thing going on…..which isnt the case……..In other words, everyone’s doe harvest rate should match up to a stable population rate, correct??

Seems like about the only way you could be killing way less does than your “stable rate”…. like if you had 3000 killed with 20K does actually being present instead of our estimated 10K….. is if you were at absolute max carrying capacity…..In which case I think there would be obvious signs through browse lines, low doe weights, low fawn counts, etc………I don’t think we have much of that occurring

Other than an area being at max carrying capacity though….the number of does taken annually countywide should correlate with a total population level, correct??……Meaning that if your county is killing 3000 does annually then you should have a population of about “X” amount does supporting that…..and we’re saying its 10K…..I bet those number arent too far off from reality though……. Kinda depends on if we’re not accounting for enough mortality in other areas…..maybe fawn mortality is 75% instead of 50%.....

But by that figuring of 10K does present for 3K killed……..Game check shows about 100K killed statewide…….Lets make it 150K though to make up for those not participating……and that would still only equate to 500K does present statewide…….Unless our figuring is off somewhere??

If you started the past season with 10,000 does and 3000 are killed by hunters and another 1000 in vehicle collisions and natural mortality, you're ending the season and carrying 6000 does in the population into year 2. If each of the 6,000 does drop 1.5 fawns each, at a 50/50 ratio, and 50% of all fawns dont make it for whatever reason, that means you're starting the next hunting season with 6000 does and 2,250 doe fawns (most of which will not be old/sexually mature enough to be bred during year 2)...........see where I am going with this?

Based on the above, the number has to be, and stay, way higher than 10,000 in order to sustain that type of heavy harvest, or the population decline will increase exponentially in every successive year, if those types of annual loss numbers are maintained in perpetuity.

So for example Dallas Co has averaged checking in 3000 does per season for at least the last 5 years………How many does are you saying have to be present for them to be able to keep doing that year after year??

According to Google the state estimates we have 1.41 million deer as of 2022 by the way…..They may not be far off but I'm curious as how they arrived there.....

Alright so maybe it’s more along the lines of needing at least 15000 does total to kill 3000……..

Let’s say we go into the season with 4000 doe fawns and 11,000 adult breeding age does……….We kill 3000 and allow for another 1000 for other mortality and end the season with 11,000 does to do it over again…….11K does have 16500 fawns……half die…..8,250……half are bucks……. 4,125 added back to our doe total and we start the next season with 15,125 does……Something kind of like that anyways……If we raise fawn mortality or decrease reproduction rates though you’ll need more does….……Maybe we call it 15-20K does to kill 3K annually…….That would actually put it right there in the 1.4 million range for a total that the state says we have……At a rate of 20K that would give us 1 million does and 400K bucks…….

So now if you look at the numbers we have a range of roughly 500-3000 does being game checked from county to county…….Add in a correction factor if you want to get the real number……..That should break down to an associated population range that looks like this…..Again change mortality rates in our formula and the number will change slightly but this should be in the ballpark......Correct or way off??

Does Killed…………Total Doe Population

500…………………………..3350
1000…………………………6700
1500…………………………10,000
2000…………………………13,350
2500…………………………16,700
3000…………………………20,000
3500…………………………23,350
4000…………………………26,700

So while those numbers may still need tweaking……what should still hold pretty true is that areas that are killing about the same number of does from year to year should have very similar deer densities……Correct?......You would just have to break the county numbers down into “does killed per acre” or square mile in order to put each county on a level playing field……..then you should be able to make a pretty good density map…….Sounds like it may be time to break out the crayons…..

Well…..so here it is broken down…… this is showing it as a rate of one doe killed for every “X” amount of acres…….fill in the blank……So for example Jackson county is killing one doe for every 237 acres……

What I find interesting looking at it is the big difference in the rate that does are being killed in my area in counties like Bullock and Russell as compared to straight across the state in Sumter, Choctaw, Washington, Monroe, etc…..Why are those doe killing rates so low in comparison? Is the deer density really half?........ Or……Are the deer populations actually maxed out in those counties??....Is the overall population similar to the counties in my area and the difference in doe mortality being compensated for somewhere else??.....Such as for example….. are there does getting old and our extra doe “deaths” occurring from some kind of old age related mortality instead of hunter mortality??....Maybe coyotes ultimately getting more of them??.....Are reproduction rates much lower??.........

Here's the question I have in my mind. Who gives a phuck?

The same way they counted snappers

I think......CNC should find him some folks to let him manage their land. CNC the wildlife bioligist.

Why is it still called the Gulf Of Mexico?

My bad!....It has now been updated.....

So help me figure this one out………

Marsh says that Monroe Co has PLENTY of deer…….Monroe Co is 1025 sq miles in size and they check in around 1650 does a year……In comparison Russell Co is 641 sq miles in size and check in around 2100 a year…….. If Russell Co was the same size as Monroe they would be killing nearly 4000 does a year…..My question is……If Monroe Co doesn’t have half the deer density as Russell then what’s happening to all of those extra does that they ARENT killing in Monroe??......Wouldnt the population grow to capacity pretty quickly if there were that many extras??

Here’s what I think might be happening and I’m just curious to see if anyone else sees the same thing……I think they probably do have plenty of deer like Marsh says in that part of the state…I think the hunter density is low enough that they just arent killing enough does total for it to be the controlling factor over population growth……Basically things are running about the same as if they didn’t shoot any does at all……They’re just skimming some cream off the top for their freezers with what they kill……And if that’s so, then the whole southwest corner of the state is really one big counter argument to the “having to shoot does” debate…..

…..either that or Marsh is full of chit and the southwest corner is actually hurting for deer...

To much time on my hands.....

You need alot more doe's than you think you do to kill them in wholesale fashion. Still think its dumb you can essentially kill 118 doe's and only 3 bucks each season.

Since you like numbers, I think you need to consider how the state tracks deer. It's antlered, and unantlered. Some of your doe numbers are really bucks.